Feed aggregator

Giving false hope, Obama claimed several times last year that U.S. oil extraction was at an all-time high, when actually it’s in a long-term decline. Whatever people say about the future, at least I hope we can be honest about the past, and put our current position in a long-term perspective. That’s not too much to hope for, is it?

read more

Caring about the air, water, and land that give us life. Exploring ways to ensure Canada’s natural resources serve the national interest. Knowing that sacrificing our environment to a corporate-controlled economy is suicide. If those qualities make us radicals, as federal Natural Resources Minister Joe Oliver recently claimed in an open letter, then I and many others will wear the label proudly.

read more

Few debates illustrate the messy nature of North America's energy politics better than the postponement of the Keystone XL pipeline.

read more

Social scientists often cite the handicap that we are not permitted to conduct experiments on humans as an excuse for why social science advances more slowly than the physical sciences. But fracking provides an interesting social experiment playing out right before our eyes. In Pennsylvania, gas and natural resource companies have been sufficiently powerful to prevent passage of a statewide ban on fracking; as a result 8000 permits have been issued and 4000 wells dug since 2008. Just across the Delaware River, New York State has issued a temporary ban on fracking in Marcellus Shale pending release of a study and new regulations by the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation. The issue has become so controversial that the NYSDEC report may now be delayed until 2013.

read more

When your local utility buys more renewable energy to power your lights and computers, what more do you get besides the power?
You get cleaner air, fewer respiratory health problems, and lower health-care costs.
You get local jobs building and maintaining green power plants and a better foothold in the fast-growing, multi-billion dollar global renewable energy industry.
If you use the power to charge the new plug-in electric vehicles now available, you reduce our imports of foreign oil and increase our energy security.
And finally, you reduce the greenhouse gases that are leading to the severe, threatening weather events spurred by global climate change.

read more

Occasionally, the troubled story of Alfred Wegener's theory has been perversely appropriated by climate deniers to claim that they are discriminated by the scientific establishment. But that only shows that climate deniers don't understand how science works.

read more

While it may be way too early to declare a final winner in the race to find replacement renewable liquid fuels for the jet fuel and diesel that power so many of the vehicles in the world, there are some indications as to the technology that just might end up coming out ahead.

The results starting to appear also show that sometimes there is a disconnect between what the Government wants and considers possible, and the real world. The concern over climate change (not peak oil) led many governments around the world to mandate that propulsion fuels include a growing percentage generated from a renewable source. Six years ago I was in St Louis for the Renewable Energy Conference with its great emphasis on cellulosic ethanol. President Bush came to bless the endeavor, and much was made of it being the time to start building plants. A short while thereafter, I started looking into the generation of biodiesel from algae, and brought up the logical suggestion, to me, of growing it underground. (That idea still gains me the occasional pat on the head). Some of the early reviews of the technology were not good, but nevertheless, the Defense Advances Research Projects Agency began funding the development of algae, particularly as a source for jet fuel.

Time passed, and the development of the new fuels took quite different paths. In order to encourage the change to renewable fuels, the EPA mandated that motor fuel include 100 million gallons of cellulosic ethanol in 2009, 250 million in 2010, and 500 million by 2013. (This is on the way to a target of around 2 mbd by 2022.) Some of the original companies to seize on this opportunity started out with too great an ambition. Range Fuels, after some $156 million of Government loans from the Bush Administration, closed its doors this past year, unable to make the product it had promised. When it became obvious that the initial targets would not be met the mandated volumes were lowered, so that this year, for example, the industry target is 8.5 million gallons. But still the Government will fine companies, for not using a fuel that doesn’t yet exist in the volumes needed to meet those quotas.

Two firms say that they will be able, in time, to produce significant volumes; POET is beginning construction of a plant in Emmetsburg, Iowa that is targeted to produce 25 million gallons a year from 700 tons a day of the left-over material from corn fields after the corn is removed. They have currently stockpiled 61,000 tons of stover for use this year. There is some concern however over the long-term Biomass Crop Assistance Program, which is supposed to help with funding. (DOE is to provide a $105 million loan). However, the Scotland S.D. pilot plant can only handle a ton a day of material (turning it into 80 gallons of ethanol at a cost of around $3 a gallon), and so the rest is to be burned as a fuel at the ethanol plant in Chancellor, S.D. (This is a corn ethanol plant.)

A second plant will be built at Kinross in Michigan by Mascoma, following an agreement with Valero, and the award of $80 million from the Department of Energy. The plant is intended to generate an annual flow of 20 million gallons (1,300 barrels/day ) of cellulosic ethanol from hardwood pulp. The process is based on the use of engineered micro-organisms to produce the necessary saccharolytic enzymes and then converting the sugars released by those enzymes into the desired end-products. The process is known as Consolidated BioProcessing (CBP). In the meanwhile, they are also licensing a technology for improving the performance of corn ethanol plants. To date, therefore, the promise of cellulosic ethanol has not been met.

Other sources for liquid fuels have been also been tested, and some – particularly the use of vegetable oils, either pre or post use in fast food chains – have found some niche in the market. Alaskan Airways are using an 80% conventional 20% cooking oil derived mix. At the moment, the cooking oil derivative is six times the cost of conventional fuel and Dynamic Fuels is the only commercial source with the plant having a capacity of 75 million gallons per year. They are now working with Solazyme to meet a target delivered volume of 450,000 gallons of renewable fuel, and that brings the focus back to biodiesel from algae.

By 2010, DARPA was already claiming that the contractors it was working with had shown the promise of producing algal biodiesel at a price of $2 a gallon. Following that step, the US Navy has begun trials with oil made from algae. In the set of agreements that have flowed out of the initial success and led to the 450,000 gallon agreement, the U.S. Navy has taken delivery of roughly 75,000 gallons of biodiesel for testing in the fleet. And while the US Air Force is continuing trials of jet fuel made from camelina as the search for replacement renewable fuels continues. Beyond camelina (which has some problems finding a suitable home for large volume growth) commercial airlines are looking at algae sourced alternatives, with a United Continental flight having used a 60% conventional 40% algal sourced mix on a flight from Houston to Chicago. The algae-based fuel comes from Solazyme, which went public last spring and the company and has signed a non-binding letter of intent with the airline to sell them 20 million gallons of bio-sourced jet fuel starting in 2014. Interestingly the plant uses “indirect photosynthesis” to grow the algae, rather than open ponds. Robert Rapier has described the technology that they use. By using algae that do not require sunlight, they can generate the fuel in bioreactors where the process can be better controlled. Gail Tverberg first wrote about the company in 2008.

Despite the opportunities that the fuel market presents, it does not, however, at the present time, provide much profit to a company, since it is costing about as much to produce a product as the market price will bear (around $3 a gallon). Thus it is still more profitable for the company to use the algal product in an earlier form as a triglyceride that can then be used in cosmetics and other chemical stocks. But, in contrast to the problems that cellulosic ethanol continue to have, I must admit to a quiet smile as I see the success that algal-derived fuels are starting to achieve.

Now if I could just get them interested in nice, constant temperature locations for their plants, with much of the infrastructure, walls, roof and floor already in place, and relatively little cost for development, my original projections just might . . . .

Here’s a great ‘The Transition Companion’ widget created by Green Books, which offers an immersion into the book, complete with audio bits and all sorts. It’s easily embeddable, so if you have anywhere on-line it could go, that would be wonderful. Click on it and it blows up into a flip-throughable selection from the book. Thanks to Stacey at Green Books for creating it…

There are violent protests taking place in Bucharest, Romania, which carry with them the threat of destabilizing the government, as we have seen in countries which lie further south. But while countries involved in the “Arab Spring” have oil and natural gas that are being exported, Romania is no longer a leader in production and export of petroleum products, and now imports them. Yet back in 1837, it was reportedly the first country to have an oil industry, reaching a production of 1719 barrels a year. It was also, in 1900, the first country to export gasoline, at a time when it was producing some 5,000 barrels a day. That made it the then third largest producer in the world. But by the 1930’s the country had fallen to seventh place, even though Romania was still the second largest producer in Europe, behind the Soviet Union.

By the time of the Second World War, the oil fields of Ploetsi were underpinning the operations of the German military machines, providing an estimated third of that country’s need. Attempts to bomb the fields were prolonged and, though they were not always successful and the fields and refineries continued to provide fuel for most of the war, the continued bombing finally got production down to 7% of capacity.

Location of Romania and Ploiesti (Home of Heroes)

UPDATE: I have added Jean Laherrere's more recent prediction below the fold.

Following the war, the region fell into the Soviet zone of influence. Production picked up and rose until 1980, following which, it has declined until fairly recently.

Annual production and discovery (Jean Laherrere)

UPDATE: Jean Laherrere has been kind enough to update this figure with a more recent plot, as follows, and I thank him for the kindness.

Jean Laherrere's new Romanian Prediction

More recently, as demand has continued to rise, the country has had to rely increasingly on imports.

Recent Romanian oil balance (Energy Export Databrowser)

Similarly, peak natural gas production was also around 1980, with the country barely keeping a declining supply in tune with falling demand since then.

Recent Romanian natural gas production (Energy Export Databrowser)

(The country started nuclear production in the late '90s and has significant coal production.)

The nine oil fields in the Ticleni region, one of the older oil producers in the country, has just changed management hoping thereby to increase production of 4,500 bd from some 300 wells to over 6,000 bd.

Seismic exploration, introduced after WW II, helped make the majority of the discoveries that led to peak oil production in 1976. It has been the use of 3-D seismic that revealed much of the potential not developed in the past.

Romanian oil production and peak (Petrom)

Petrom was privatized in 2004, and began paying a dividend in 2010. Exploration offshore began in 1975, with oil production starting in 1987 from the Lebada East Field. By the end of 2010, total production from a total of 250 fields had risen to 174 kbd.

Encouraged by recent activity, Melrose has begun investing money in the offshore Black Sea. This follows a recent trend in which the Deepwater Champion entered the Black Sea to drill off Turkey, last March. Just this month it has moved off the Romanian coast, after having terminated work at two sites off Turkey. Drilling is under an ExxonMobil/Petrom partnership, with Exxon Mobil providing the funds. If the initial well proves out, plans are to invest more than $3 billion in developing the prospect.

The historic fields have all been onshore around Torcesti for oil and Mamu for natural gas, while the new fields offshore are in deeper water, such as the Delta. It is currently anticipated that crude oil reserves are around 420 million barrels, with some 2 Tcf of natural gas, though there is potential for more.

Map of the Black Sea showing the relative position of Romania. (World Atlas)

There is still an ongoing effort to redevelop mature oilfields in the country; steam injection will be tried this year using long horizontal holes, rather than the vertical used to date, in the heavy oil SUPLAC field in the west of the country. Water injection is to be tried in the OPRISENESTI field in the East, and polymer injection is being considered for the VIDELE field in the South. VIDELE was earlier the site for a successful World Bank funded project that used in-situ combustion to try and reverse the declining production of this and the BALARIA fields. The treatment was intended to increase ultimate oil recovery from 15% to 39% of the OIIP. In 1998, Supalcu de Barcau was the largest in-situ combustion project in the world, with about 9,000 bd of production.

More recently, the discovery of a new reservoir in the TOTEA gas field, and a new well currently on test, has the potential to be the largest gas find on shore in six years.

However, much of the future looks deep offshore in the potential of fields such as the NEPTUN. (Though the company is hedging its bets by also building a wind farm).

Romanian oil and gas fields (USGS)

The new exploration and development is shared between Petrom and Romgaz, who have 55% of the natural gas sites in the country.

Romanian concession holders (Romanian National Agency for Mineral Resources)

Offshore production from the Histeria Block

While the current production from the Delta IV field is on the Continental Shelf, the new exploration is ranging into the deeper waters of the NEPTUN field, where the Deepwater Champion program is scheduled to last some 90 days. Water depth fluctuates from 160 ft to 5,500 ft over the field, but the first hole has been spudded in 3,200 ft of water. The field is a hundred miles offshore, and has undergone the largest 3-D seismic survey in Romanian history prior to the drilling program.

Deepwater Champion (Transocean)

The maritime dispute with Ukraine was settled in 2009, setting up the bidding offshore, and estimates for the Neptun field run up to 3 Tcf of natural gas and 73 million barrels of oil. Unfortunately, even if these discoveries pan out they are unlikely to have much impact on the problems in Bucharest, although perhaps by the time that oil is brought ashore, they will be over and production might be sufficient to help with the country's budgets. But that thought includes a lot of possibly wishful thinking . . . and that future will not be here for several years yet, even if it should come to pass.

During the past seven years, TheOilDrum.com has hosted analysis and discussion surrounding the possibility and implications of a near term peak in global oil production and importance of energy to society in general. Out of the ~8,500 articles posted here (all searchable by keyword in upper left), the list below comprises what each author considered some of their most relevant content.

The list is in alphabetical order, by last name of Oil Drum contributor. Click on the author's name to go to their list of selected articles. At the end of each section, a link is given to the complete list of all articles by that author.

List of Authors Gail the Actuary Ugo Bardi Art Berman Jason Bradford Joules Burn François Cellier David Clarke Samuel Foucher Nicole Foss Big Gav Prof. Goose Nate Hagens Phil Hart Rembrandt Koppelaar Rune Likvern Euan Mearns David Murphy Heading Out Jérôme à Paris Engineer-Poet Robert Rapier Luis de Sousa Stuart Staniford Jeff Vail Chris Vernon List of Articles Gail the Actuary

Oil Limits, Recession, and Bumping Up Against the Growth Ceiling.
Write up of an introductory presentation, explaining our how limited oil supply is causing recession and lower economic growth.
Are We Reaching Limits to Growth?
Looks at our current financial and other problems, in relationship to Limits to Growth (from the 1972 book by that name).
IEO 2011: A Misleadingly Optimistic Energy Forecast by the EIA
Explains why the latest official forecast of the US Energy Information Administration appears optimistic.
Kidding Ourselves About Middle East/North Africa Oil Production.
Why claims about future high oil production from Middle East/North Africa are likely overstated.
The Link Between Peak Oil and Peak Debt - Part 1
Why limited oil supply is likely to be associated with declining debt availability.
What's Behind Egypt's Problems?
Explains the connection between declining oil exports and Egypt's "Arab Spring."
Is It Really Possible to Decouple Energy Growth from GDP Growth?
Explores why growth in energy efficiency seems to have stopped after 2000. Also see Thoughts on Why Energy Use and CO2 Emissions are Rising as Fast as GDP
The US Electric Grid: Will it be Our Undoing? – Revisited
Why the US electrical transmission system has so many challenges, and the many obstacles to improving it.
Social Security and Medicare Funding Issues: Even Worse when One Considers Resource Constraint
Why Social Security and Medicare funding issues are even worse, when Peak Oil is considered.
What Can We Learn from Gift Economies?
Campfire post relating to a system where individuals gain status not by what they have, but by what they give away.
There is plenty of oil but . . .
There is a huge amount of oil that theoretically can be extracted, but the question is whether the cost will be cheap enough for us to be able to afford to extract it. If the oil is too expensive to extract, the shortage of oil seems to cause a recession, similar to what we are having now.
Scientific American's Path to Sustainability: Let's Think about the Details
Scientific American presents "A Path to Sustainable Energy by 2030" in its November 2010 issue. I explain why it wouldn't work.
Some Cautionary Thoughts about Wind
Offers ten reasons why wind is not as an attractive an option as many think it is.
Delusions of Finance: Where We are Headed
Explanation of why my financial forecasts at the beginning of 2008 turned out to be correct.
Peak Oil and the Financial Markets: A Forecast for 2008
A financial forecast for 2008 that in retrospect has proven accurate.
Our World Is Finite: Is This a Problem?
Post written before I became an Oil Drum staff member that lays out may of the major issues that I continue to write about.
Read more posts by Gail the Actuary. (Real name, Gail Tverberg)
Back to the top

Ugo Bardi

"Peak Civilization": The Fall of the Roman Empire
A post attempting to apply system dynamics to the fall of the Roman Empire which - as far as I know - has not been done, so far.
Cassandra's curse: how "The Limits to Growth" was demonized
With its scenarios of civilization collapse, the book shocked the world perhaps more than Cassandra had shocked her fellow Trojan citizens when she had predicted the fall of their city to the Achaeans. Just as Cassandra was not believed, so it was for the "Limits to Growth" which, today, is still widely seen as a thoroughly flawed study, wrong all along.
The Universal Mining Machine
Why can’t we build a universal mining machine here, on Earth, and stop worrying about running out of mineral resources?
Mind-sized Hubbert
What is it, exactly, that causes production peaks for oil and for other non renewable resources?
The dark side of coal - some historical insights on energy and the economy
In this post, I start to tell the story of coal in Italy and how the fortunes of the country went in parallel with those of coal well until mid 20th century.
The church, the peak, and my old watch
A post about leaving something that lasts a long time and that doesn't need precious resources that can't be replaced.
The post-peak car
A fantastic account of how a 1970s Fiat 500 has been retrofitted with batteries and an electric motor to create the Post Peak Car.
How to Drive your Elephant - Dealing with Complex Problems
How elephant driving may be seen as as a metaphor for controlling complex systems.
Peak Minerals
A post taken from a report co-authored with Marco Pagani which examines the world production of 57 minerals reported in the database of the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and makes the case for the peak and decline of many of these minerals in the near future.
Peak Caviar
"Peak Caviar" is another confirmation of how common the "Hubbert" behavior is. It doesn't matter if a resource is theoretically renewable, as sturgeons and whales are. If sturgeons or whales are killed much faster than they can reproduce, then they behave as a non renewable resource; just as crude oil.
Read more posts by Ugo Bardi
Back to the top

Arthur E. Berman

Arthur Berman talks about Shale Gas
McMoRan Davy Jones Gas Discovery
Co-written with Joshua H. Rosenfeld, this post looks at a significant discovery in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico by the McMoRan Exploration Company that may contain 2-6 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of natural gas reserves.
Shale Gas—Abundance or Mirage? Why The Marcellus Shale Will Disappoint Expectations
Shale gas plays in the United States are commercial failures and shareholders in public exploration and production (E&P) companies are the losers. This conclusion falls out of a detailed evaluation of shale-dominated company financial statements and individual well decline curve analyses.
BP Macondo Blowout - Static Top Kill vs. Bottom Kill: Weighing the Risks
A post co-written with William Semple.
Is the Drilling Moratorium Long Enough? No, Not Really
The key issues around the drilling moratorium as I see them.
What caused the Deepwater Horizon disaster?
The blowout and oil spill on the Deepwater Horizon in the Gulf of Mexico was caused by a flawed well plan that did not include enough cement between the 7-inch production casing and the 9 7/8-inch protection casing. The presumed blowout preventer (BOP) failure is an important but secondary issue.
ExxonMobil’s Acquisition of XTO Energy: The Fallacy of the Manufacturing Model in Shale Plays
Most analysts believe that the ExxonMobil acquisition of XTO Energy (XTO) represents a dramatic shift in strategy by the premier exploration and production (E&P) company, and a validation of shale plays. It is neither. The move represents a considered and deliberate choice that acknowledges diminished opportunities for the oil giant to add and replace reserves.
Read more posts by Arthur Berman
Back to the top

Jason Bradford

The Thermodynamics of Local Foods
I wrote this in response to a slew of media attention that argued against local foods. However, based on thermodynamics, only a predominantly local food system will be sustainable in the long run.
Ecological Economics and the Food System
This is a summary of energy use in the U.S. food system placed in the context of ecological economics. Our current food system is structured inappropriately for long-term viability, and the kinds of shifts required to make it more enduring are discussed.
Save it for the Combine
Few people understand how critical certain technologies are to their survival and way of life. The combine allows one person to harvest the food for hundreds, saving enormous labor while using liquid fuels. I argue that any rationing of liquid fuels or use of biofuels be prioritized for the combine.
The Food System and Public Policy
Many in the U.S. like to think we live in a free market economy. But when it comes to development of the food system public policy explains much of what we see.
The Food System and Resilience
Resilience is a concept from ecology that can be applied to any complex system. When the current food system is examined using a resilience framework it is found to be very fragile. The essay concludes by outlining the possible emergence of more resilient food systems given new economic and energetic realities.
Energy Descent and Agricultural Population
This article includes a graph that combines data on energy use and percent rural population, showing that more energy in a society lowers the proportion engaged in farming. Given the shape of this relationship, can we make some educated speculations about shifting labor demographics in highly industrialized nations during energy descent?
Scenario 2020: The Future of Food in Mendocino County
I believe there’s the possibility of a near-term collapse of complex societies given a financial shock, perhaps precipitated or exacerbated by political and energy crises. This photo essay conveys this potential from an imagined future, with an emphasis on the food system.
I have an interest in economics, in the broad sense, of how and why people and societies chose to invest and consume, and what this means for resources and the environment. The following three essays share a common theme: resources are only constrained in a world with exponentially growing demand for more stuff. Reducing demand is more important than increasing supply, and ultimately we have no choice. However, conscientious curtailment comes up against both engrained pyscho-social reward systems, which are largely explored in the first two essays, and the structure of our financial system, which is touched upon in the third.
Finding Healthy Addictions
Dopamine Returned on Energy Invested (DREI)?
Advice to Pres. Obama( #6): Beware the Hungry Ghosts
Read more posts by Jason Bradford
Back to the top

Joules Burn

Khurais Me A River
An early look at the development of the Khurais oilfield in Saudi Arabia using satellite imagery, reviewing past efforts to produce from the field.
Ghawar Numerology: Drilling in Uthmaniyah
An animated history of the drilling sequence in one part of the Ghawar oil field in Saudi Arabia.
Saudi Arabia's Ghawar Isn't Sinking (but has apparently moved)
A critical look at satellite imagery analysis which reached some faulty conclusions regarding the behavior of the Ghawar field upon depletion.
Abqaiq and Eat It Too
A look at recent developments in the giant Abqaiq field in Saudi Arabia using satellite imagery combined with published reports.
Local Scientist Splits Water, Saves World, Gets On TV
A skeptical look at recent claims of a breakthrough in water electrolysis to produce hydrogen.
Five Easy Leases: Ghawar's Discovery Wells
An in-depth look at the first wells drilled in the five operational areas for the Ghawar field, including their current status.
Who Killed the Electric Gas Tank?
A look at claims of a breakthrough in ultracapacitors for energy storage in electric vehicles.
Saudi Aramco Loses Count, Drills Too Many Wells In Ghawar
An satellite imagery analysis of Saudi drilling activity in the southern-most part of the Ghawar field, showing that more has been going on than publicly revealed.
Lessons Left Unlearnt From 2003 Gulf of Mexico Near-Spill
A look in the US Materials Management Service datafiles revealing a number of accidents and near misses which preceded the massive BP spill in the Gulf of Mexico.
Crude Confessions: Massive Saudi Oil Spill in 1993?
A look at how Saudi oil is transported out of the country in the context of claims of a secret oil spill.
Read more posts by Joules Burn
Back to the top

François Cellier

Ecological Footprint, Energy Consumption, and the Looming Collapse
This article explores dynamic relations governing population growth, resource depletion, and world economics by means of a few simple modeling and simulation exercises.
Is the 2000 Watt Society Sustainable in Switzerland?
In this presentation, we discuss whether the 2000 Watt Society is at all sustainable, and if so, what it will take to keep energy supply at that level after the end of ample and cheap fossil fuels.
The Slavery of Oil
A review of a proposed methodology that would allow me to quantify the price level of crude oil at which our economies will stall.
Read more posts by François Cellier
Back to the top

David Clarke

The Failure of Networked Systems: The Repercussions of Systematic Risk Revisited
Cascading collapse and why the corporate drive towards increasing efficiencies could be driving our interacting networked systems towards this mode of collapse.
The Networking of Resource Production: Do the Networks Give us Warnings when They are About to Fail?
The flaw in the techno-cornucopian dream: Modeling why and how a networked resource-extraction system fails.
Read more posts by David Clarke
Back to the top

Samuel Foucher

Analysis of Decline Rates
This post offers a kind of reverse engineering of what numbers could be behind the long and detailed IEA decline analysis in their last report (2008 IEA WEO). A tentative decline structure for the post-peak Super-Giant and Giants oilfields is offered as well as a possible scenario for future production.
Peak Demand or Peak Consumption? A Look at OECD Oil Demand
In this post I show that the key driver behind the oil price increase since 2002 has been excess demand combined with unresponsive supply.
Peak Oil Update - July 2009: Production Forecasts and EIA Oil Production Numbers
An update on the latest production numbers from the EIA along with graphs/charts of different oil production forecasts.
Estimating the World Production Decline Rates from the Megaproject Forecasts
Having a good estimate of the decline rate of the resource base (most estimates are ranging between 2 and 6%/year) is fundamental for the precision of supply forecasts derived from megaproject database.
Saudi Arabia: An Attempt to Link Oil Discoveries, Proven Reserves and Production Data
This article is an attempt to apply the Hybrid Shock Model (HSM) on Saudi Arabia's oil production. In a nutshell, the HSM is trying to model the observed production profile from the discovery curve by simulating the different phases involved in the development of oilfields (initial discovery, planning, build, maturity).
Why We (Really) May Have Entered an Oil Production Plateau
We know that some countries (around 56) have seen their production peaked (also called type III depletion). The remaining group consists of 17 countries that have the potential to grow or maintain their current production (the type II group). I propose to apply the HL technique only on the total production from the the type III group and try to assess the future production decline coming from that group.
An Update on Mexico's Oil Production--The Rapid Collapse of Cantarell by the Numbers
Last year, I expressed my concerns about the eventual impact of a rapid collapse of Cantarell on Mexico's oil production. The last production numbers from PEMEX seems to confirm the rapid decline of Cantarell as well as the inability of the Mexican to rapidly bring new production online.
The Loglet Analysis
Most peakoilers on this site have been introduced to the logistic curve through the famous prediction of King Hubbert on the Lower-48 production. Fewer maybe knows that curve fitting techniques have been extensively applied by people that we may qualify as cornucopians. Ironically, the logistic curve is also used as a prediction tool for market share and technology substitution.
A Different Way to Perform the Hubbert Linearization
A quick post about a different manipulation of the logistic differential equation. By using the first derivative, we get a new way to perform the Hubbert linearization. Some results are given on Norway and the US oil production.
Norway and the Parabolic Fractal Law
Norway can be considered as the poster child of the Hubbert curve modeling approach with a production profile that is remarkably close to the logistic curve.
Read more posts by Samuel Foucher
Back to the top

Nicole Foss

Entropy and Empire This article is a discussion of the rise and fall of empire (in thermodynamic terms) and the process of imperial succession.
The Resurgence of Risk Resurgence of Risk is a description of the developing credit crunch from its inception - an explanation of how we arrived at this financial crisis and where we are headed.
Smart Metering and Smarter Metering Electricity metering is a significant means of addressing excess demand, but the high-tech metering solutions being proposed miss many opportunities because they pay no attention to psychological drivers.
A MacKenzie Valley Pipedream? This piece assesses the prospects for the construction of a MacKenzie Valley pipeline through the Canadian north.
Anaerobic Digestion in Ontario - A Regulatory Obstacle Course Renewable energy technologies wishing to connect to the grid face significant regulatory obstacles that add so much to project costs that project viability is threatened.
Read more posts by Nicole Foss
Back to the top

Big Gav

Concentrating On The Important Things - Solar Thermal Power
While we spend a lot of time talking about traditional energy sources based on depleting resources that are extracted from the ground, I think its important to remember that the fastest growing sources of energy are solar and wind, and that these will never run out.
Tapping The Source: The Power Of The Oceans
A post examining the use of artificial islands to collect wind, wave, ocean current and solar power in the tropics, along with a more unusual energy source - harnessing the difference in water temperatures between the warm surface and the cold depths using a technique called OTEC (Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion).
Geothermal Energy: Geothermia
Crossposted from my blog Peak Energy as the subject of geothermal power has cropped up in the comments a few times lately.
Floating Offshore Wind Power
An update on a post I did last year on the potential for floating offshore wind power, which looked at a number of different prototypes at various stages of development.
The Limits To Scenario Planning
A review of some common misconceptions about the Limits to Growth book.
Iraq's Oil: The Greatest Prize Of All
In this post I'll outline why I believe that Iraq probably has the world's largest oil reserves - or, as Daniel Yergin once said of the middle east, it is "the greatest single prize in all history".
Natural Gas In Australia - How Long Will It Last?
In this post I have a look at how much gas Australia has and how long it will last under a variety of scenarios.
Coal Seam Gas In Australia
In this post I look at recent events in the gas industry and what they mean for Australian gas production in future.
The Hydrogen Economy and Peak Platinum
A comprehensive review of the issues involved in the "hydrogen economy".
Hubbert: King Of The Technocrats
In this post I explore the Technocracy movement and Hubbert's role in it.
Locabucks: Are local currencies a way to escape the liquidity trap?
I look at the concept of local currencies (or "locabucks" as I'm now dubbing them), an idea which has its roots in the Great Depression as a mechanism for escaping the liquidity trap - and thus might be relevant again in the not-too distant future if present trends continue.
Terra Preta: Biochar and the MEGO Effect
In this post I have a look at modern day techniques to produce terra preta (often called biochar or agrichar) which have the potential to increase soil fertility, generate energy and sequester carbon all at the same time.
Buckminster Fuller's Critical Path
A review of Buckminster Fuller's last work, Critical Path.
Is It Time For a 4 Day Working Week?
In this post I look at various proposals to reduce the amount of time we spend at work, as a way of addressing energy, environmental and other issues facing us.
Peak Oil And The Tea Party Movement
In this post I have a look at the boost this (peak oil) is likely to give to populist politics and some of the possibilities for addressing this.
Read more posts by Big Gav
Back to the top

Prof. Goose

A Pretty Stunning Graph of World Cement Production (and China is Certainly Using It)
This post updates Stuart's post about this two years ago (and yes, it's still a graph that will blow you away!) with two more years of USGS cement data, 2006 and 2007.
From the Editor's Desk: Peak Oil, Heretical Thought, Complexity, and the Future of The Oil Drum
Lately, I have been thinking a lot about the direction of The Oil Drum. Much of my thinking on this set of ideas has been brought about by some soul-searching, trying to understand the problems we face as a community, and then figuring out how to "positively push the future."
Peak Oil, Persuasion, and the World Meme
What insights can we claim from psychology to get those we care about, and even those we don't, to dig deeper to get to an understanding of the pillars of the problems we face, instead of trying to buy aluminum siding for a house slowly falling in on itself?
Will Canada Fuel Fortress America?
Will Canada complacently allow the US to pillage her resources as energy supplies become more scarce?
Why the US Political System Is Unable to React to Peak Oil: Institutions
I thought I would bring some pieces of the political puzzle together into a post on why I believe the US, at least at the federal level, will be overly slow to react to the problems of peak oil in both the short and long term.
Was That Really Five Years?
A summary and some thoughts about the fifth year of the Oil Drum's existence.
The Oil Drum Celebrates Its First Year Today
Read more posts by Prof. Goose (Real name, Kyle Saunders)
Back to the top

Nate Hagens

The Psychological and Evolutionary Roots of Resource Consumption A (longish) exploration of how our evolved neural wetware predisposes us to compete for status and also allows us to be hijacked by novelty items/activities, many of which use alot of energy.
A Net Energy Parable: Why is ERoEI Important? A story about how energy return on investment impacts an imaginary society of Sasquatches - highlighting the importance of biohpysical metrics for a civilization.
Peak Oil: A View from Planet Talos An alien perspective on the resource depletion/human nature intersection.
Living for the Moment While Devaluing the Future An examination of why we have evolved mechanisms to steeply favor the present over the future and why this is relevant to questions of resource depletion and environmental problems.
Peak Oil - Whom to Believe CERAiously-Part 1 Highlights of the main differences between the energy cornucopians and those predicting a near term peak in oil production.
Peak Oil - Why Smart Folks Disagree Part 2 More detail on the above post on supply side differences between energy optimists and realists.
Peak Oil - Believe it or Not - Part 3 An overview of human cognitive biases that contribute to disagreement on resource depletion/climate change.
Can We Be Happy Using Less Energy? Uhh Yes! An look at decreasing returns to more consumtion.
Old Sunlight vs Ancient Sunlight - An Analysis of Home Heating and Wood Measuring the scale of US standing forest relative to US fossil fuel use for heat.
".......Dammit - We Wasted a Day of Sunlight"
Peak Oil, IHS Data and The Broken Clock
Peak Oil and Reflexivity and Peak Oil Soros theory of reflexivity, in light of oil depletion.
Hedge Funds, Hurricanes and Energy Markets An overview of volatility and the small size of energy markets relative to financial capital.
The 2008 IEA WEO Review (#1 in a Series) The first in a series examining the claims of the IEA annual energy report.
Advice to Obama (#2) Yes We Can But Will We? A letter to the new President, outlining biophysical (supply) and evolutionary (demand) type thinking.
Campfire
What Do We Tell Our Children A letter I wrote to an 8 year old boy who asked about oil running out.
I Don't Know A short piece looking at why we are so confident, even when we know very little.
I Dream of GINI - Wealth Inequality During Resource Depletion
Peak Oil, Peak Credit and Investments - So What the Hell Does One Do? An initial pass at rewriting the Capital Asset Pricing Model assumptions
Whither The Oil Drum? An introspection on the purpose of sites like this, when the meme of peak oil has been generally accepted.
Enter the Elephant A look at why facts matter very little in changing peoples behavior.
2010: The Year for Making ContactNew Years resolutions for myself, in light of current conditions.
Dear Candidate-What Will You Do if Growth is Over?
Read more posts by Nate Hagens
Back to the top

Phil Hart

Meet Trev: A two-seater renewable energy vehicle
I believe there is instead a bright future for a spectrum of 'micro' electric vehicles, from battery powered bicycles up to compact size cars, including this new concept car named Trev (Two-seater Renewable Energy Vehicle).
International Energy Agency calls 'Peak' on OECD Oil Demand
In World Energy Outlook 2009, the International Energy Agency seems to have dropped a bombshell that has been quietly (and politely) ignored.
The Economics of Volatile Oil Prices
Considering the fundamental nature of oil supply and demand provides a coherent explanation not just for the rapid rise in oil prices, but also the dramatic fall.
The 2008 IEA WEO - Oil Reserves and Resources
Despite significant changes, the 2008 IEA report still relies on inflated estimates of reserves from OPEC countries, overplays the contribution of reserves growth due to technology and predicts the reversal of a decades long trend of declining oil discoveries.
Oil, House Prices, Credit? Three parts of the same story
The long forgotten 'oil crisis' of just a few months ago has been replaced by a full blown 'credit crisis' - related events that represent the unravelling of half a century of unsustainable trends in oil consumption and debt.
High-Tech Hitchhiking
Could a hitchhiking scheme for the iPhone era work in practice and change attitudes to hitching a ride?
How Technology Increases Oil Production
How can you double something and still have ten times less than you started with? The answer to this question will help us reassess claims that advances in oil field technology will postpone the peak in global oil production.
Oil Reserves: Where Ghawar goes, the rest of OPEC follows
In May 2007, the work of Stuart Staniford and Euan Mearns culminated in a new and unprecedented assessment of oil reserves in Ghawar, the world's largest oil field. This article combines their assessment with additional information sources, to produce a revised estimate of reserves in Saudi Arabia and the other OPEC countries.
Read more posts by Phil Hart
Back to the top

Rembrandt Koppelaar

Carbon Capture and Storage: Economic Costs Revisited
The effects on coal power plant economics of CO2 emissions capture.
Carbon Capture and Storage: Energy Costs Revisited
The effects on coal power plant economics of CO2 emissions capture.
A primer on reserve growth part 1
What is reserve growth and why it is so difficult to measure?
A primer on reserve growth part 2
A summary of various reserve growth studies.
A primer on reserve growth part 3
A discussion on the reserve growth figures in the USGS World Petroleum Assessment 2000.
Are Reserves of the Largest US Coal Field Overstated by 50%?
A summary of the USGS 2009 reserve assessment of the largest U.S. coal field, Gilette in Wyoming.
Read more posts by Rembrandt Koppelaar
Back to the top

Rune Likvern

Europe and Natural Gas - Are Tough Choices Ahead?
In this post, I present some graphs showing European historical natural gas consumption and supply, along with my estimates of future consumption and supply.
Trends in World Oil Supply/Consumption and Net Exports/Imports
In this post I briefly present the results from my analysis of absolute and relative trends in world oil (all liquids) supply, consumption, net exports and net imports between 1980 and 2009.
Has OECD oil consumption peaked?
I examine similarities and differences in oil consumption patterns of OECD and Non-OECD countries and offer my view as to what the future may hold.
IEA WEO 2008 - NGLs to the Rescue?
In this post, I will document that there is good reason to believe that the IEA WEO 2008 projections in the reference scenario overshoots the likely world production of NGLs by as much as 35 - 50 % by 2030.
Has Fossil Fuel Consumption Within EU Peaked?
As this post will show the likelihood that the EU’s fossil fuel consumption has peaked, back in 1979, is now very real. It will also compare the degree of net fossil fuel self-sufficiency between the EU and the USA as of 2007.
Why UK Natural Gas Prices Will Move North of 100p/Therm This Winter
This post presents the development of the energy mix for the UK, and how the UK in less than a decade went from being a substantial energy exporter to a substantial net energy importer.
Read more posts by Rune Likvern
Back to the top

Euan Mearns

Lies, Damned Lies and Government Oil Production Forecasts?
Back in 2005 the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD) forecast 2.84 mbpd oil production in Norway during 2009. I pointed out their forecast was rather optimistic. 2.3 mbpd was what actually came to pass. The NPD were 23% too high.
The architecture of UK offshore oil production in relation to future production models
This post, written in November 2006 provided a forecast for UK oil production employing bottom up and top down methodology. My forecast for UK oil production in 2009 was 1.53 mbpd. 1.45 mbpd was what actually came to pass. I was 6% too high.
Flesh on the bones of Mexican oil production
With Cantarell in free fall, this post tried to take a more holistic view of Mexican oil production, pointing out that nitrogen once destined for Cantarell would now be diverted and injected into neighboring Ku-Maloob-Zaap complex.
Saudi production laid bare
This post was written to counter Stuart Staniford who claimed "Oil production peaked in Saudi Arabia in 2005. Recent sharp declines in production are involuntary and Saudi Arabia has switched from swing producer to supply constrained producer."
GHAWAR: an estimate of remaining oil reserves and production decline (Part 1 - background and methodology)
GHAWAR: an estimate of remaining oil reserves and production decline (Part 2 - results)
Ghawar reserves update and revisions (1)
Estimates of the remaining reserves and future production in Ghawar, the worlds largest oil field, based on data gleaned from the internet by a host of eager bloggers.
Crisis, what energy crisis?
An overview of the best posts from the 12 months preceding July 2007.
UK Energy Security
A look at possible impacts of UK oil and gas production decline together with a range of appropriate energy policy responses.
Saudi Arabia - production forecasts and reserves estimates
An oil production forecast for Saudi Arabia using both bottom up and top down (Hubbert linearisation) techniques. Peak was forecast to be 2011.
The European Gas Market
A comprehensive look at where Europe gets its natural gas from (34 charts and maps) including forecasts that incorporate peak Norwegian gas production and decline of the supergiant gas field at Groningen in Holland.
Daddy, will the lights be on at Christmas?
A follow up to the European Gas market incorporating a forecast for Norwegian gas production produced by Rune Likvern.
Why oil costs over $120 per barrel
An examination of some of the fundamental causes of the run in oil prices that took place in 2008.
Why oil costs over $130 per barrel: the decline of North Sea Oil
An overview of North Sea oil production decline and its role in the oil price run of 2008.
A State of Emergency
An examination of the plunge in UK oil and gas production and its impact on the UK economy ahead of the 2008 crash.
The Global Energy Crisis and its Role in the Pending Collapse of the Global Economy
The slides I presented at a talk to the Royal Society of Chemists in Aberdeen, November 2008.
The energy efficiency of energy procurement systems
An overview of the energy return on a number of energy procurement systems together with a look at contradictory policies being pursued by OECD governments.
The energy efficiency of cars
A simple look at the energy efficiency of various vehicle propulsion systems including all electric, internal combustion, fuel cells and bio fuel.
The financial return on energy invested
An experimental examination of links between energy production, consumption, prices and GDP.
The Chinese Coal Monster
An examination of the phenomenal growth in Chinese coal production and consumption. How long can this go on?
Read more posts by Euan Mearns
Back to the top

David Murphy

EROI, Insidious Feedbacks, and the End of Economic Growth
In this post I attempt to answer the following question: Is a return to long term economic growth possible?
The True Value of Energy is the Net Energy
"The true value of energy to society is the net energy, which is that after the energy costs of getting and concentrating that energy are subtracted.” - H.T. Odum (1973)
Energy Transitions and the Next Paradigmatic Image of the World
The most important question is “what is the next paradigmatic image of the world?”
The Net Hubbert Curve, what does it mean?
Cutler Cleveland of Boston University has reported that the EROI of oil and gas extraction in the U.S. has decreased from 100:1 in the 1930’s to 30:1 in the 1970’s to roughly 11:1 as of 2000. What does this mean?
Further Evidence of the Influence of Energy on the US economy
Gail, Jeff Rubin, and now James Hamilton of the University of California – San Diego have produced literature correlating either this financial collapse or recessions more generally with peak oil and oil prices. The take-away message of their work is that oil prices played a fundamental role in causing the current recession and many previous recessions.
The Energy Return on Investment Threshold Due to the asymptotic nature of the curve at high EROIs, extraction/conversion processes with EROIs below 8 result in vastly different flows of net energy than those with higher EROIs.
Read more posts by David Murphy
Back to the top

Heading Out

Heading Out has written a long series of articles under the title of Tech Talks, running on Sundays. These recently deal with oil and gas resource availability in various parts of the world. Earlier, the articles dealt with techniques for extraction of oil and gas. After the Deepwater Horizon blow out, he wrote a series of articles dealing with the approaches to sealing the well.
Link to a listing of posts by Heading Out. (Real name, Dave Summers)
Back to the top

Jérôme à Paris

Ukraine vs Russia: Tales of pipelines and dependence
I wrote the text below in late December 2005, i.e. just before the Russian-Ukrainian gas conflict, which had been simmering for a few weeks, blew open into the consciousness of the West.
New Iraqi oil law: some facts on PSAs
A post refuting some assertions about the new Iraqi oil law, which will allow foreign companies to invest in the oil sector via PSAs (production sharing agreements).
A review of the underlying fundamentals of nuclear energy
A review of the pros and cons of the nuclear industry.
How To Get A Pipeline Built
A primer on why and how pipelines get built - which essentially means how they get financed.
Countdown to $200 oil meets Anglo Disease
Oil has played a fascinating side role in my Anglo Disease series, allowing the debt bubble to go on for much longer than expected. But now, instead, it is accelerating the crash. Let me take you through the whole cycle.
Fierce pride - yes it works! (or, first ever bank-financed offshore wind farm inaugurated!)
A post about the windfarm which I helped finance two years ago which is now up and running.
Countdown to $200 oil: $140 oil and speculation
There are A LOT of good reasons why oil prices are going up. Let me show you just a few.
The cost of wind, the price of wind, the value of wind
In this post I try to clear some of the confusion that surrounds the economics of wind power, as this is an issue that is often used by the opponents of wind to dismiss it.
Read more posts by Jérôme à Paris
Back to the top

Engineer-Poet

Sustainability, Energy Independence and Agricultural Policy.
If we are going to use biofuels, we need to re-think everything involved with them; the results may not look like anything we've ever seen.
One engineer's advice for energy policy.
An open letter to Obama on the path the country should take.
H2CAR: Another blind alley
We can make enough biofuel to replace oil, but at a price we cannot pay; this is NOT a solution.
The Cogeneration Stopgap
Generating electricity along with heat can stretch fuel supplies and bridge to the future.
Energetics of cultivation: draft animals vs. combustion engines and the Haber process
Tractors are more efficient than horses, and we don't have to breed or train them.
Analysis of the Hon. John Dingell's carbon-tax proposal
Talking back to a Washington insider who kept Detroit in the gas-guzzler business, who I voted against when my city became part of his district, yet who is making some sense.
EPA economy ratings vs. the GM Volt: A square peg in a round hole
Ruminations on why MPG loses its relevance in a world of watt-hours per mile.
Photovoltaics: From Waste to Energy-maker
How the dumps of phosphate mining can yield the material to power much of the world.
Weathering the storm: making it through a natural-gas crisis.
Lifestyle changes which may slash fuel demand by changing habits.
Read more posts by Engineer-Poet
Back to the top

Robert Rapier

We Won't Stop Global Warming
I lay out the case that there isn’t really much we will do to stop the accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere.
Does the Hubbert Linearization Ever Work?
Debunking the use of the Hubbert Linearization as a tool for the prediction of peak oil.
Peak Oil Interview: Misconceptions, Replacing Oil, and False Solutions
An interview I did at that 2010 Global Footprint Network conference that discusses peak oil.
What If Gas Cost $100 a Gallon?
A thought experiment to see what people might really do in cases of extreme gasoline constraints.
A Critical Examination of Matt Simmons’ Claims on the Deepwater Spill
Debunking hyperbolic comments related to the deepwater spill.
The Switch to Winter Gasoline and a Primer on Gasoline Blends
Every year in late summer, you will start hearing references in the media about the conversion to winter gasoline. So what does this mean, and why does it make gasoline less expensive?
The Price of Energy
Just looking at the cost per BTU of many different energy sources. Sparking some interesting discussion.
The Case for Higher Gas Taxes (and Lower Income Taxes)
I make my case for why it would make sense to shift taxes from income to consumption of fossil fuels.
Ethanol Blend E85 Case Study: Iowa
Examines the question of why Iowa should use their own ethanol instead of exporting it.
The Next Five Years: Peak Lite and the Current Oil Picture
Seeking to explain why I think peak oil consequences would start to happen before peak oil.
Refining 201: The Assay Essay
Explaining what products are produced from crude oil, and how that relates to the assay of the crude.
Why Not Nuclear Power?
Exploring the case for expanded nuclear power.
The Future is Solar
Why I think solar power has to play a more important role in the future.
Cellulosic Ethanol vs. Biomass Gasification
Just explaining the difference in the two technologies that have seen the borderlines between them blurred.
German Military Study Warns of Potential Energy Crisis
A translation of major points from the Bundeswehr report.
Read more posts by Robert Rapier
Back to the top

Luis de Sousa

World Oil Exports: A Comprehensive Projection
This article is a first simplistic (but comprehensive) assessment of World Oil Exports, here defined as the total amount of liquid hydrocarbons that are surpluses in producing countries.
World Oil Exports [00] Introduction
A 2008 update on the original 2006 assessment.
World Oil Exports [01] Angola
The next post in the series focussing specifically on Angola's oil reserves.
World Oil Exports [02] Libya
Same as above except Libya this time.
A New Energy Policy for Europe
Wednesday the European Commission released a series of Communications proposing a new revolutionary Energy Policy attempting to address EU’s energy challenges for the XXI century. This is a set of first comments to such proposals.
Dialoguing with Dr. Peter Jackson of CERA: Is the Future of Oil Resources Secure?
Some reflections follow regarding Dr. Jackson’s arguments and understanding of the Hubbert’s Peak.
From sweet on the table to fuel in the tank: the millenary history of Sugar Cane
A dive into the fascinating history of a plant that shaped the World.
Marchetti's Curves
This is a brief account of the Energy Substitution Model developed by Cesare Marchetti in the 1970s at IIASA.
A few more thoughts on Saudi and HL
There has been some discussion about how to apply the Hubbert Linearization (HL) to Saudi historical production in recent weeks at TOD. Trying not to fall into redundancy, let me have some loose thoughts on these models.
Olduvai revisited 2008
This work tries to assess how the decline of Conventional Fossil Fuels may unfold and how can Mankind avoid the Road that may take us back to the Olduvai Gorge.
IEA WEO 2008 - Fossil Fuel Ultimates and CO2 Emissions Scenarios
An assessment of the WEO climate change statistics, co-authored with Euan Mearns.
Energy Policy: SER-2
This log entry is the first of a series that will try to build a critical but constructive review of this crucial element of future Energy Policy in Europe.
SER-2 [02] Memo on the Security and Solidarity Action Plan
In the second installment of this series analysing the Second Strategic Energy Review (SER-2) by the European Commission, the focus is on to the Memo entitled “EU Energy Security and Solidarity Action Plan”.
SER-2 [03] Communication of the Security and Solidarity Action Plan
This post tries to highlight important aspects that aren't referenced in the Memo and presents the implementation steps proposed by the Commission to put the Plan into practice.
Planning for Europe's Energy Future: My Submission to the Commission's 2010 Consultation on Energy
This document is a response to the Energy Consultation launched by the European Commission in the first half of 2010. This consultation is part of a process that shall take the Commission to a new Energy Policy Programme a few years from now.
Interview with Jean Laherrère
Some comments on the general Fossil Fuels depletion picture and our future beyond them.
Read more posts by Luis de Sousa
Back to the top

Stuart Staniford

4%, 11%, Who the Hell Cares? A very early piece pointing out that the post-peak decline rate is really the critical variable in assessing the seriousness of peak oil - much more important than the date or height of peak, or the degree of warning of peak. This piece still seems pretty good to me.
Hubbert Theory says Peak is Slow Squeeze. The first piece I wrote looking at the evidence that the post peak decline rate will probably be slow, rather than rapid.
The Auto Efficiency Wedge A piece looking at the fact that at slow decline rates, it's reasonably forseeable that peak oil can be handled by ongoing efficiency improvements (not painlessly, but without complete disaster)
Depletion Levels in Ghawar A major forensic analysis of the state of oil depletion in the Ghawar field of Saudi Arabia, suggesting that Saudi official oil reserve figures are over-optimistic.
US Peak Oil Adaptation: Prognosis in a Credit Crunch Rather prescient piece from 2007 discussing the possibility that the credit crunch could collapse oil prices and slow adaptation to peak oil. This turned out to be pretty much what happened.
Fermenting the Food Supply An argument against continued growth in biofuel consumption as an alternative to oil, on the grounds that the implications for food prices are likely to be very problematic.
The Fallacy of Reversibility This piece argued that there is no evidence for the idea that peak oil will lead to a revival of local non-industrial agriculture. The reverse seems more likely - that industrial agriculture is being and will be strengthened by high oil prices.
Powering Civilization to 2050 The first of three posts laying out a scenario for how we could get to a fairly close to carbon neutral civilization by 2050, without major collapse or disaster (if I was in charge in of the world). This post looked at energy, and argued that extrapolating the learning curve of solar power, it was possible to see energy becoming cheap again by 2050, based primarily on solar.
Four Billion Cars in 2050? Second of the "2050" series: Guesstimates on how many cars there might be by 2050, and how they might be powered.
Food to 2050 The third in the "2050" series: Whether there are likely to be limitations on feeding the world's population to 2050 in a cautiously optimistic scenario.
Read more posts by Stuart Staniford
Back to the top

Jeff Vail

Theory of Geopolitical Disruptions to Oil Supply
Discusses several non-geological feedback loops that may have a dramatic impact on the course of resource depletion.
Mexico, A Nation-State Dissolves
Addresses the geopolitical instability in Mexico as a potential bellwether for the Nation-State structure generally, and its potential impact on oil production and exports.
The Problem of Growth
How the fundamental structure of our civilization demands perpetual growth and is therefore inherently unsustainable, as well as potential structural solutions.
Oil Demand Destruction and Brittle Systems
Argues that demand destruction tends to make remaining demand less elastic, and therefore makes systems more brittle and vulnerable to future supply shocks.
Predator-Prey Dynamics in Oil Prices
Argues that oil demand, supply, and prices can be modeled similar to predator-prey systems in nature.
A series of posts on the potential for suburbia post-peak.
A Resilient Suburbia? 1: Sunk Cost & Credit Markets
A Resilient Suburbia? 2: Cost of Commuting
A Resilient Suburbia? 3: Weighing the Potential for Self-Sufficiency
A Resilient Suburbia 4: Accounting for the Value of Decentralization
The Renewables Gap
Discussion of the challenges of a societal transition to renewable sources of energy, and especially the "gap" between the beginning of massive investment and the beginning of significant levels of renewable energy generation.
Read more posts by Jeff Vail
Back to the top

Chris Vernon

Will Wartime Mobilisation Address Peak Oil?
A look at Lester Brown's call for wartime mobilisation.
Nuclear Britain
Reviews the history and future of civilian nuclear power in Britain.
Climate Change – an alternative approach
Rather than attempting to reduce emissions be reducing demand, can the same be achieved by limiting fossil fuel production?
Jonathon Porritt: Peak Oil and Climate Change
Prominent environmentalist brings together these two issues.
Goodbye Helium, Goodbye Brainscans
Non-Renewable resource scarcity, the case of Helium.
Read more posts by Chris Vernon
Back to the top

Some Notable Guest Posts

Cutler Cleveland - Energy Transitions Past and Future
Herman Daly: Towards a Steady State Economy
Herman Daly on the Credit Crisis, Financial Assets, and Real Wealth
Jay Hanson: America 2.0
Walter Youngquist: Unique Times -- and the Future
Christopher Smith: Aviation and Oil Depletion
Nick Rouse: Will Nuclear Fusion Fill the Gap Left by Peak Oil?
Dave Pollard: It's Our Turn to Eat: How Politics Works and Why Activism is So Important
Lester R. Brown: The Oil Intensity of Food
Alan Drake: Multiple Birds – One Silver BB: A synergistic set of solutions to multiple issues focused on Electrified Railroads
Debbie Cook: How Will Local Governments Respond to Large Increases in Energy Bills?
Aaron Newton: The Four Day Work Week: Sixteen Reasons Why This Might Be an Idea Whose Time Has Come
Glenn Morton: Holding Daniel Yergin and CERA Accountable
Michael Vickerman: A federal energy policy: can it happen here?
Brad Lancaster - Eight Principles of Successful Rainwater Harvesting
Dave Rutledge: The Coal Question and Climate Change
Jeffrey J. Brown: The ELP Plan: Economize; Localize & Produce
Jean Laherrère: Arctic Oil and Gas Ultimates
Jean Laherrère: Hydrates updated
Jean Laherrère: Forecasts on Saudi Arabia liquids production
Jean Laherrère: Update on US GOM from MMS, EIA and Scout Data
Sterling Smith: Energy Vision 2050
Douglas B. Reynolds: Peak oil and the Fall of the Soviet Union: Lessons on the 20th Anniversary of the Collapse
Back to the top
This list isn't exhaustive nor final but what the authors sent in (and we are still missing a few authors).

Mark Twain is reported to have said: “It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.” What most environmentalists think they know for sure is that oil, coal and natural gas are all abundant-so abundant, in fact, that many environmentalists believe they are forced to make a Hobson’s choice of natural gas as a so-called “bridge fuel” to a renewable energy future.

read more

Obama to tout natural gas benefits in State of Union (Reuters) - President Barack Obama will encourage the country's booming natural gas output in his State of the Union address on Tuesday, while defending his administration's energy record, according to sources familiar with the matter.

Obama was expected to devote a significant portion of his speech slated for 9 p.m. EST Tuesday calling for a "new era for American energy," which will include promoting domestic natural gas production, according to documents provided to Democratic party sources.

U.S. natural gas output has grown sharply in recent years thanks to advances in drilling techniques that have unlocked massive shale reserves.

Scotland’s Independence Bill May Exceed Oil Money Claimed by Nationalists Ever since oil was discovered in the North Sea off the British coast in December 1969, the Scottish National Party claimed it for Scotland.

Now in power and closer than ever to a referendum on whether to break from the U.K. after more than 300 years, the SNP government in Edinburgh led by Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond is counting on tax revenue from the oil industry as a key pillar of the economy along with financial services.

Spain banks on Saudi promise Saudi Arabia has promised Spain that it will make up for supplies of oil its loses as a result of EU sanctions on Iran and at the same price, Spain's foreign minister said on Monday.

Crude Trades Below $100 as U.S. Inventory Outlook Counters Iran Embargo Oil fluctuated below $100 a barrel in New York as speculation U.S. stockpiles gained last week countered concern Iran will respond to an European embargo on its crude exports by shutting the Strait of Hormuz.

Tony Hayward accused of 'lying' over Gulf spill Tony Hayward, the former chief executive of BP, has been accused of giving untruthful evidence to US Congress, by plaintiffs suing for damages over the Gulf of Mexico oil spill.

Top Woman in Oil to Head $225 Billion Plan as Petrobras Chief Executive Maria das Gracas Foster, the first woman named to run one of the world’s top five oil companies, will take over the industry’s largest investment plan with Petroleo Brasileiro SA (PETR4)’s $225 billion proposal to more than double its output by the end of the decade.

Analysis: No-one should be fooled into thinking that Tehran will simply take this lying down HOW might Iran react to an EU embargo on oil? So far, it has been assumed Iran simply accepts this without retaliation.

This is extremely unlikely and it is necessary to consider what options Iran might have. Recently, there has been much speculation, encouraged by some, but not all, elements in the Iranian power structure, that its response would be to inhibit the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz.

A winning Strategy For Iran, and for the World But first, since everyone has talked only about the reasons why Iran should not pursue nuclear power, let me briefly state why it is in our interest that Iran does pursue nuclear power.

The Long Climb Up Hubbert's Peak What most annoys me about dialogue on the Internet these days is that it's so utterly lacking in a sense of direction. It's as if it's dominated by some sort of new generation that considers itself the inventors of the term "peak oil." But no matter how hard I bash my head against the wall, trying to get people to move beyond that basic concept, I rarely have much success. In particular, I've tried a thousand times to get readers to grasp the two simple facts that (1) there is no way of changing the fact that industrial society is approaching a massive imbalance between energy supply and population and (2) it's time to start seriously thinking about Emergency Planning.

How much planning has been done, for example, to deal with the massive global famine that is approaching? None.

The blue-state trap Writing in this week’s New Yorker on why President Obama has been unable to bridge the partisan divide in Washington, Ryan Lizza points to a simple yet important factor: our tendency to live near people who always agree with us, creating a Congress without a true center. Is it possible that in building vibrant cities where we want to live, we’ve also created a frozen, extreme politics many of us abhor?

“It would be hard for any president to reverse this decades-long political trend,” writes Lizza, “which began when segregationist Democrats in the South — Dixiecrats like Strom Thurmond — left the Party and became Republicans. Congress is polarized largely because Americans live in communities of like-minded people who elect more ideological representatives.”

Mercury’s Harmful Reach Has Grown, Study Suggests The strict new federal standards limiting pollution from power plants are meant to safeguard human health. But they should have an important side benefit, according to a study being released on Tuesday: protecting a broad array of wildlife that has been harmed by mercury emissions.

How to Get Help Paying for Heating Oil As the threat of an actual winter intensifies, advocates for the poor have been worrying about how low-income households will cope with the high cost of heating oil.

Complications of Hacking the Planet As scientists, with some reluctance, begin to study the idea of “geoengineering” the planet to slow or halt global warming, they are finding that any such program would quite likely have a complex array of effects, not all of them to humanity’s benefit.

Japanese Struggle to Protect Their Food Supply ONAMI, Japan — In the fall, as this valley’s rice paddies ripened into a carpet of gold, inspectors came to check for radioactive contamination.

Onami sits just 35 miles northwest of the wrecked Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant, which spewed radioactive cesium over much of this rural region last March. However, the government inspectors declared Onami’s rice safe for consumption after testing just two of its 154 rice farms.

Then, a few days later, a skeptical farmer in Onami, who wanted to be sure his rice was safe for a visiting grandson, had his crop tested, only to find it contained levels of cesium that exceeded the government’s safety limit. In the weeks that followed, more than a dozen other farmers also found unsafe levels of cesium. An ensuing panic forced the Japanese government to intervene, with promises to test more than 25,000 rice farms in eastern Fukushima Prefecture, where the plant is located.

Crude Oil Advances After European Union Agrees on Sanctions Against Iran Oil rose as the European Union announced a phased-in embargo of Iranian (OPCRIRAN) crude in an effort to contain the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program.

The ban will be implemented in stages by July 1, Dutch Foreign Minister Uri Rosenthal told reporters today in Brussels. The region bought 450,000 barrels a day of Iran’s oil in the first half of 2011, U.S. Energy Department data show. EU finance heads are meeting to craft a long-term plan to tackle the area’s debt crisis.

Price of gas up 3.5 cents in the past two weeks The average price of gasoline in the United States rose again in the past two weeks, gaining nearly 3.5 cents to about $3.39 a gallon, due in part to higher crude oil prices, according to the nationwide Lundberg Survey.

Natural Gas Picture Still Bleak The U.S. Energy Department's weekly inventory release showed a slightly lower-than-expected drop in natural gas supplies, as warmer-than-normal temperatures across the country have restricted the commodity’s requirement for power burn. In fact, gas stocks – currently 20.8% above the 5-year average and 19.6% higher than the same period last year – are at their highest level for this time of the year, reflecting low demand amid robust onshore output.

Suspected U.S. missile kills 4 DERA ISMAIL KHAN, Pakistan (AP) – A suspected U.S. drone fired missiles at a house and a vehicle in northwestern Pakistan on Monday, Pakistani intelligence officials said, killing four alleged militants in an attack that could signal the program is picking up steam after strained relations halted strikes late last year.

Nigerian Islamist Group Kills 165 in Bombings At least 165 people were killed in the northern Nigerian city of Kano in bomb attacks on government buildings, the biggest by the Islamist militant group Boko Haram.

Cedi blues: Central banks’ nightmare It observed that while oil production and exports may be positive for Ghana’s trade account, it implies an increase in payments to foreign service-providers, and in repatriated income -- both of which put pressure on reserves.

Iran Says Negotiations Can Resolve Standoff Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman said only negotiations and not sanctions can resolve the standoff over the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program.

Europe Will Ban Iran Oil Imports from July European Union foreign ministers agreed to ban oil imports from Iran starting July 1 as part of measures to ratchet up the pressure on the Persian Gulf nation’s nuclear program, Dutch Foreign Minister Uri Rosenthal said.

Iran renews Strait of Hormuz shutdown threats after EU joins U.S. in banning oil imports In Iran, one politician responded by renewing a threat to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, an oil exporting route vital to the global economy, and another said Tehran should cut off oil to the EU immediately.

That might hurt Greece, Italy and other ailing economies which depend heavily on Iranian crude and, as a result, won as part of the EU agreement a grace period until July 1 before the embargo takes full effect.

Unilateral sanctions on Iran 'do not help': Russia (MOSCOW) - Russia said Monday it viewed the European Union's oil embargo on Iran as counterproductive and would continue to defend Tehran against further sanctions over its nuclear programme.

"Unilateral sanctions do not help matters," Russian news agencies quoted Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov as saying in response to the EU decision.

Iran's rial drops 10 pct as EU bans oil imports TEHRAN: Iran's rial currency plunged 10 percent to a new record low on Monday as the EU imposed a ban on Iranian oil imports, posing a major headache for President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad who has said sanctions will not hurt the economy.

BACKGROUND: EU trade with Iran Brussels - Iran provides a notable, but not decisive, quantity of oil to the European Union. Of the 896 million barrels of crude imported to the 27 EU member states in the first quarter of 2011, just 4.4 per cent came from Iran.

Over the whole of 2010, Iran supplied 5.7 per cent of the around 3.8 billion barrels (1 barrel = 159 litres) imported by the EU.

Iran Said to Seek Yen Oil Payments From India Amid Sanctions Iran has asked India to pay for oil partly in yen as the two nations seek an agreement on how to maintain trade amid tightening global sanctions, according to three people with knowledge of the matter.

At talks in Tehran last week, India proposed to pay its second-biggest oil supplier in rupees through a bank account in the South Asian nation, said the people, declining to be identified because the information is confidential. Iranian officials sought partial payment in yen because they’re concerned that they may not get sufficient value from the rupee, which isn’t fully convertible, according to the people.

Natural gas glut, low prices, prompt Chesapeake to cut exploration and production NEW YORK — Faced with decade-low natural gas prices that have made some drilling operations unprofitable, Chesapeake Energy Corp. says it will drastically cut drilling and production of the fuel in the U.S.

Chesapeake, the nation’s second largest natural gas producer, said Monday that its planned 8 percent production cut means the U.S. as a whole would produce the same or slightly less natural gas in 2012 than it did in 2011.

Halliburton Profit Grows as U.S. Fracking Surges Halliburton Co., the world’s largest provider of hydraulic fracturing services, said fourth-quarter profit rose as customers boosted spending on the technique for capturing oil in the U.S.

The Keystone - China connection is overblown In an effort to diversify its export base and sell to growing markets, Canada has been looking to build a pipeline to its West Coast long before the Keystone controversy even began.

And actually laying a pipeline to the West Coast will be just as hard as building one through the United States.

GM Faces Task of Rebuilding Volt Model’s Image After NHTSA Fire Probe Ends General Motors Co. begins the task this week of repairing the image of its Chevrolet Volt plug-in vehicle after federal regulators closed their investigation into a battery fire.

First series of Better Place cars hit roads A four-year venture in the making, the first fleet of several dozen Better Place Renault Fluence ZE electric cars drove in a procession down Tel Aviv’s Ayalon on Sunday afternoon. About 100 Better Place employees were the beneficiaries of today’s inaugural car shipments, and members of the general public will begin receiving their vehicles during the second quarter of 2012, the company said. Throughout the year, thousands of electric cars will be reaching the country’s roads, according to Better Place Israel CEO Moshe Kaplinsky.

A Smart Power Grid Begins With a Promise for the Future Substation No. 505 in Oak Park, with its nondescript cluster of bulky transformers and web of power lines, seems an unlikely place for Commonwealth Edison to start the $2.6 billion smart grid it says will prepare the region’s antiquated power system for the digital age.

Egyptian commitment starts to gather force Egypt, which has been touted as the region's front-runner in the adoption of wind power in the Middle East and North Africa, has contracted the turbine manufacturer Gamesa to equip a 200-megawatt wind farm.

GE Courts Turbine Customers for Solar Panels Before Wind ‘Crash’ General Electric Co. (GE) is trying to convince developers that have bought its wind turbines to double down on clean energy by purchasing its solar panels as well, said Vic Abate, who runs the company’s renewables unit.

Swiss-German partnership plans $2bn solar investment in Oman A partnership between Terra Nex and Middle East Best Select is poised to invest US$2 billion in solar plants and panel manufacturing in Oman.

Geothermal test will pour water into volcano to make power Geothermal energy developers plan to pump 24 million gallons of water into the side of a dormant volcano in central Oregon this summer to demonstrate technology they hope will give a boost to a green energy sector that has yet to live up to its promise.

Coalition to sue EPA over ash pond rules delay ASHEVILLE, N.C. – A coalition of 11 environmental and public health groups from seven states has announced plans to sue the government over the delay in finalizing rules to make coal ash ponds safer.

The numbers are grim: China's property bubble is heading for a spectacular burst, and its effect on the country's economy will be widespread. FORTUNE -- The Chinese government's announcement last week that growth for 2011 slowed only slightly to a still impressive 9.2% was greeted enthusiastically by the world's stock markets. Investors also remain buoyant on China's future. They appear to be buying the official line that the gigantic property price bubble is gradually and smoothly deflating, posing little risk to an engine that's so crucial to the future of global trade.

But the math tells a different story. The housing frenzy has driven prices so high, so fast, that a crash on the scale of the real estate collapse in Japan in the 1990s is a virtual certainty. And China's already exaggerated official growth rate could take a pounding, all the way to the zone of the unthinkable, into the low single-digits.

A world in chaos? That may be a good thing. FORTUNE -- Too much is happening in the world. Politically, economically, and culturally momentous news is occurring on every continent seemingly every day, and it's overwhelming for the hapless citizen striving to stay on top of it all. If you want to impose order on the chaos, at least in your own mind, here's a suggestion: Just remember a, b, c, d. Four large, interrelated forces are driving the action globally, and they conveniently begin with those letters.

Joe Oliver's Desperate Hour Oliver would no doubt like to suppress the fact the tar sands are our last major oil reserve; that the easily extracted tar sands oil has been cherry-picked and the remaining reserves are subterranean and will be even more expensive to extract.

Eastern Canada is already heavily dependent on foreign oil imports.

Canada has exhausted most of our conventional oil reserves.

Why do we still ignore threats to our survival? Resource depletion is the other side of the global warming coin; raw materials and energy sources are being over-exploited. Has the "peak oil" point been reached? Will "peak water" be the next focus? Giddens gives a concise history of energy use. Up to the 17th Century, wood was the source of fuel in Britain. Declining stocks forced the change to coal, a move which spawned the Industrial Revolution. Now, each of us in the West employs the equivalent of 150 energy slaves working full time. In recent decades the focus has shifted to oil. The history of its exploitation is the modern history of imperialism; oil and authoritarianism are bedfellows. Nor is the current supply situation clear. Saudi Arabia, for example, may be exaggerating the extent of its reserves, while the strategic hold of the United States on the Middle East is breaking down.

Apple shows us why manufacturing will never return from China Reports such as SACOM's from May of 2011 have shown us of the stresses, low wages, and unsafe conditions of plants such as those used for manufacturing iDevices and other electronics. Yet, on the surface, a New York Times reports seems to point to more than just cheap labor as being the reason just about everything is manufacturered overseas. They're right too; it's not just cheap labor; it's virtual slave labor.

Urban gardens: The future of food? It's easy to make fun of, but as more and more farming moves downtown, eating local is taking on a new flavor.

Getting food on the table - the plea for a greener revolution The converging threats of population growth, climate change, volatile markets and unsustainable use of resources are now being shouted loud by leading scientists urging governments to work together to transform the way food is produced, distributed and consumed.

They want food on the table at international forums - on the agenda, not the buffet. There is, they insist, little time to waste in ushering in a new agricultural revolution, one which echoes the bumper yields of 1960-90, but without the associated environmental costs.

Geoengineering may improve rather than threaten global food security London: Reflecting sunlight away from the Earth to combat global warming will more likely have a positive impact on global food production rather than negative, a new study has revealed.

Food Waste Denounced by Ministers as Almost 1 Billion People Go Hungry Food waste was denounced by farm ministers and policy makers gathered in Berlin as almost 1 billion people in developing countries go hungry.

Consumers in rich countries dispose of 220 million metric tons of food waste every year, equal to the entire food output of sub-Saharan Africa, Jose Graziano da Silva, the director general of the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization, told 64 agriculture ministers meeting in Berlin over the weekend.

City Grazing The 60 goats living in the rail yard near Pier 96 at the Port of San Francisco contribute to the city of San Francisco in their own way, clearing brush as fire prevention and offering a green alternative to toxic herbicides. Perched on the edge of Bayview-Hunters Point, an industrial area, these hard workers avoid the busy roads and — incredibly — return home when called.

Putting plankton before people In fact, debates around big dams expose greens for the self-contradictory people they are: they tend to oppose dams on the basis of their damage to biodiversity, but advocate dams when asked for examples of renewable energy sources that actually work. Big dams appear on the list of both the good and the bad.

Climate skeptics gathering influence in Tory Senate seats OTTAWA — Some of Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s newly-appointed senators are emerging as global-warming skeptics in the wake of aggressive government positions to abandon the Kyoto Protocol, slam environmentalists and downplay potential damage caused by Canadian oil and gas exploration.

“I felt like it is kind of an insult to be a denier for a long time,” said Sen. Bert Brown, last month at a parliamentary committee studying energy policies. “It feels pretty good this morning.”

Climate scientists back call for sceptic thinktank to reveal backers Leading climate scientists have given their support to a Freedom of Information request seeking to disclose who is funding the Global Warming Policy Foundation, a London-based climate sceptic thinktank chaired by the former Conservative chancellor Lord Lawson.

Home, Home … on Less Range Significant amounts of forage — nature’s free “service” to the cattlemen — will either be dessicated (under the warmer and drier projection) as the arid conditions in southeastern California inch northward or will be replaced by less-digestible scrub and brush (under the warmer and wetter projection), the study projects.

The loss will cost California ranchers tens of millions of dollars annually if it is warmer and wetter over the next 60 years or so, and $123 million to $209 million a year if it is warmer and drier, the article suggests.

It’s late December and an icy fog cloaks the northeastern state of Uttar Pradesh. Here, far from the cities, smoke rises in dense, choking spirals from meagre wood fires and scantily-clad children shiver against the cold. These are largely farming families, and their mud huts fortified by the occasional brick wall are for the most part devoid of light, heat or clean water. But it is here in Uttar Pradesh, one of India’s largest and poorest states, far away from the country’s straining power grid, that US-born entrepreneurs Nikhil Jaisinghani and Brian Shaad have started to pioneer a wholly different energy system, designed to meet some of the most basic needs of the poorest.

read more

This is a story about water, the land surrounding it, and the lives it sustains...But for once, this story isn't about tragedy. It's about a resistance movement that has arisen to challenge some of the most powerful corporations in history.

read more

A weekly roundup of peak oil news, including:
-Oil and the global economy
-The Iranian confrontation
-The Euro crisis
-China
-Quote of the week
-Briefs

read more

Providing affordable and quality energy is one of the keys to Haiti's ability to attract investments and help small businesses strive. A Port au Prince power plant is doing just that.

Community Alive Falmouth - Surviving and Thriving in 2012: A programme of events and exhibitions to assist a healthy, wealthy and wise 2012 with information and inspiration about issues on poverty, wealth and fairness...

It's counterintuitive that suppressing volatility in human affairs would actually make the world a more dangerous place. But that is precisely the thesis of a recent article by Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Mark Blyth which appeared in Foreign Affairs.

read more

The Australian Daily Telegraph published today a story on a leaked government report (BITRE 117) which (optimistically) calculated peak oil around 2017, followed by permanent decline. The report raises questions to be answered by the Federal Government.

read more

- EU prepares unprecedented attack on Iranian economy
- Barrelling towards fuel shortages
- An Iran war is brewing from mutual ignorance and chronic miscalculation

read more