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Judge rules against U.S. government on oil drilling HOUSTON (Reuters) – A federal judge on Wednesday rejected the U.S. government's request to dismiss an industry lawsuit challenging its deepwater oil and gas drilling moratorium, dealing another blow to the Obama administration.

Hornbeck Offshore Services Inc and other drilling companies sued the administration on June 7 after it first ordered a halt to deepwater drilling in the Gulf of Mexico following BP Plc's well rupture that killed 11 workers and caused the world's worst offshore oil spill.

As a result of Louisiana-based Hornbeck's lawsuit, U.S. District Court Judge Martin Feldman in New Orleans blocked implementation of the drilling ban on June 22.

Oil Trades Below $74 After Falling on Bigger-Than-Forecast Supply Increase Oil declined as equity indexes slipped and traders waited for signs whether the European Central Bank will extend emergency lending.

ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet may signal at a rate meeting today that policy makers will keep offering unlimited cash to financial institutions through the end of the year. A U.S. government report yesterday showed crude stockpiles increased almost three times more than analysts forecast.

“There are still fears about a double-dip recession in the U.S,” said Roland Stenzel, a crude and carbon trader at E&T Energie Handelsgesellschaft mbH, said from Vienna.

DOE Update: U.S. Crude Oil Production Hits 6-Year High U.S. crude oil production increased 1.7% from last week. Year-to-date oil output is up 3.8% from the year ago period. Production is now at the highest level since April 2004.

Russia output eases back Oil output in Russia fell by 0.8% in August from an all-time high reached in July, to hit a seven-month low, the Energy Ministry said today.

Qatari Oil Rises on Japan's Record Low Kerosene Supplies Qatar Marine crude is trading at the highest level in four weeks versus its official selling price as Japanese refiners replenish supplies of kerosene for heating and Saudi Arabia cuts shipments of similar grades.

Qatar Marine for loading in October jumped on Aug. 23 to a premium of 5 cents a barrel relative to the benchmark producer prices, compared with a discount of 8 cents the previous week, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The kerosene-rich blend has traded at an average of 9 cents below its official selling price during the past year.

Cuban offshore oil plans gain momentum Havana, Cuba (CNN) -- While the Gulf of Mexico oil spill has sparked debate in America on the merits of deepwater drilling, 90 miles away Cuba's offshore plans are quietly taking shape.

The country aims to drill seven exploration wells in its share of the Gulf of Mexico by 2014, according to American oil experts who recently met with Cuba's state oil monopoly Cupet and regulatory officials.

Norway offshore on course for record spend Statistics Norway said today that oil and gas investments - the core driver of Norway's economic growth - were on track to set a new record high next year.

Petrobras to Buy Oil From Brazil for $42.5 Billion in Stock Petroleo Brasileiro SA, Latin America’s largest company by market value, agreed to pay the Brazilian government $42.5 billion in new stock for the right to develop 5 billion barrels of offshore oil reserves.

Petrobras, as the state-run company is known, will pay an average of $8.51 a barrel for the oil after almost two weeks of negotiations with the government, according to a regulatory filing yesterday. More than half the oil will come from the Franco field in the offshore Santos Basin, the company said.

Russia to supply 70% of oil to JV in China Russia will supply about 70 percent of oil at market prices for a proposed joint refinery between Rosneft and China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC), Reuters said Thursday, citing a Russian news agency.

Gazprom rides high Russian gas giant Gazprom saw its profit for the first quarter of the year more than triple on the back of a foreign exchange gain, adding it had cut its net debt by more than 30%.

Statoil CEO Says Canadian Oil Sands `Attractive' at Current Crude Prices Statoil ASA, Norway’s biggest energy company, said oil sands are attractive at current crude price levels and the company is working on bringing costs down to proceed with its investments in Canada.

“We’ve had a market lately that has made that type of oil attractive,” Chief Executive Helge Lund said today in an Oslo interview. “Of course the problem two, three years ago with Canada was the costs.”

Weak Laws Bother Iraq Investors More Than Violence as U.S. Goes Ahmed Jamal says it isn’t primarily Iraq’s violence that deters his company from investing in the country. It is its weak business laws.

“We don’t have factories or warehouses or anything like that,” said Jamal, regional sales manager for Istanbul-based beverage distributor Hayat Su, which brings bottled water to Iraq in trucks and works through a local representative. “The investment laws are not suitable.”

BP to remove equipment at Gulf well by Sunday HOUSTON (Reuters) – BP Plc expects to remove a failed blowout preventer atop its ruptured Gulf of Mexico oil well by Saturday or Sunday and later plug the leak for good, the top U.S. official overseeing the spill response said on Wednesday.

"We believe in the next 24 to 36 hours, we will enter a weather window that will allow us to proceed," retired Coast Guard Admiral Thad Allen said at a briefing in Houston.

BP Tripled Ad Spending After Spill It will come as little surprise to newspaper readers and television watchers, but BP significantly increased its spending on advertising after the April 20 Deepwater Horizon explosion and oil spill. BP spent $93.4 million on newspaper, magazine, television and Internet advertising in the three months after the disaster, three times what it spent in the comparable period in 2009, the company reported to Congress.

War of the wells But like many communities in Montana, we may soon share our backyard with a new set of neighbors, and the changes these folks bring will not be so benign. Until recently, the oil and gas industry has been the source of horror stories from Wyoming, Colorado and New Mexico: the names of towns like Pinedale, Rifle and Farmington have become shorthand for cautionary tales told with a "thank-God-it's-not-us" undertone.

Australian leader acquires Aboriginal land The leader of Australia's resources-rich western province has been accused of 'another invasion' by forcibly acquiring coastal land slated for return to native tribes to build a gas plant.

Colin Barnett, premier of Western Australia state, today said he had started formal proceedings to take the land for Woodside's Browse liquefied natural gas precinct at James Price Point.

Cairn Greenland ops resume after Greenpeace protest LONDON (AFP) – Scottish oil exploration group Cairn Energy said Thursday it had resumed operations on a rig off the coast of Greenland after Greenpeace ended a protest.

What a misanthropic bunch of stunts Figures published by the US Geological Survey in 2008 estimated that there are 90 billion barrels of oil in the Arctic as a whole, enough to provide for the entire world’s current oil consumption for about a year. Of this, about 50 billion barrels may be found around Greenland. Given that Greenland is the biggest island in the world (assuming Australia is a continent), yet has a population of just 56,000, this could be an enormous windfall both for the local communities and for Denmark, which has formal control over the territory.

No wonder that Greenland’s prime minister, Kuupik Kleist, is less than impressed by Greenpeace’s protest: ‘Greenpeace has once again succeeded in impeding Greenland’s opportunities to secure the economic foundation for its people’s condition of life. The Greenland government regards the Greenpeace action as being a very grave and illegal attack on Greenland’s constitutional rights. It is highly disturbing that Greenpeace, in its chase on media attention, breaks the safety regulations put in place to protect people and the environment.’

Will we ever get off oil? There's been a lot of talk about oil this summer. Most of it bad. Devastating, record-setting leaks in the Gulf of Mexico and in Michigan's Kalamazoo River underscored, once again, the danger of our dependence on crude. Seductively efficient and still relatively cheap, oil provides nearly 40 percent of America's power. But it's also a finite resource that presents a very real threat to our environment, economy, security, and health. Given the growing risks and the shrinking reserves, there must be loads of people out there -- experts from government, corporations, academia, and the like -- hatching plans for a cleaner, safer, post-oil world, right? We asked our expert panel to explain where we are in oil's troubled lifespan, and whether and how we'll ever wean the world off its current fossil fuel of choice.

Peak Oil And The German Government - Military Study Warns Of Potentially Drastic Oil Crisis A study by a German military think tank has analyzed how "peak oil" might change the global economy. The internal draft document - leaked on the Internet - shows for the first time how carefully the German government has considered a potential energy crisis.

The dirty topic of peak oil: get ready to reduce your reliance Wouldn’t it be funny if we spent so long arguing about what to do about climate change that we ran out of cheap oil first? No, it wouldn’t really, it would be catastrophic.

But given the government’s delay in producing an Energy White Paper and the steady backsliding on the need to actually reduce our greenhouse gas emissions in Australia, it is not beyond the realms of possibility. Even the usually optimistic International Energy Agency (IEA) is starting to sound a little nervous.

How Malthus drove the Discovery Channel gunman crazy: The greatest pessimist in economic history has been wrong for 200 years, but he's still freaking people out Among the demands of James Lee, the deranged gunman who rampaged through the headquarters of the Discovery Channel in Washington, D.C., before being shot and killed late Wednesday afternoon, was a request that the TV network "develop shows that mention the Malthusian sciences about how food production leads to the overpopulation of the Human race."

Insane, but perhaps not quite as kooky as it might initially seem. Because when choosing crazy-making prophets of doom and destruction as your inspiration, you could do a lot worse than the late 18th-century economist Rev. Thomas Robert Malthus.

New report shows state highways in good shape A new report on the condition of the USA's state highways finds that they are in the best shape they have been in nearly 20 years.

The annual study by the Reason Foundation, a Los Angeles-based, libertarian, non-profit think tank, credits road improvement progress man by states and decreased wear and tear as commuters and commercial truckers drove less during the recession.

Canada's Renewable-Fuel Regulations Completed, to Take Effect on Dec. 15 Canada said it completed regulations that will require an average renewable-fuel content of 5 percent in gasoline as part of an effort to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions.

The rules will take effect Dec. 15, the government said in an e-mailed announcement today.

GM moves to trademark 'Range anxiety' NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- If you're thinking about buying an electric car but you're worried about getting stuck someplace when the battery runs out, General Motors has a two words for that.

"Range anxiety."

The automaker has filed for a trademark on the term. Range anxiety is a major reason car shoppers say they would avoid buying an electric car.

Chevy Volt, Electric Revolution? Or Outta Gas? The first thing I noticed driving the Chevrolet Volt is that it’s a real car. GM did not kick out the kind of street-legal version of a golf cart like we have seen with previous attempts at making an electric car. The Volt is sturdy and it has horsepower. I had it up to 80 MPH on the test track and given how quiet gasoline powered cars are today, I was hard pressed to notice a difference between the Volt and my last airport rental.

Desertec solar hopes cloud over as support starts to waver It has been one step forward, two steps back this year for the Desertec solar project, which aims to source 15 per cent of Europe’s electricity supply from the MENA region’s deserts by 2050.

A significant piece of good news for the ambitious €400 billion (Dh1.87 trillion) scheme came in April, when one of its members, Germany’s Solar Millennium, said its 150 megawatt Kuraymat project in Egypt was nearing completion and could serve as a template for other north African solar farms.

Then came the bad news with Algeria’s decision last month not to participate in the Desertec Industrial Initiative, which was formally launched last year by a group of 12 European companies, mostly from Germany. On Monday, Paul van Son, the director of the group, said he was now also concerned about declining German government support for the project.

Fresh Air for Sale, in Hong Kong HONG KONG — ‘‘Do your feeble breathing skills let you down? Does standing up tire you out?’’ The answer: Buy a breath or two of ‘‘Fresh Air’’ — the ‘‘revolutionary new product’’ that lets you experience breathing ‘‘like the rest of the world does.’’

...‘‘Fresh Air’’ is the new campaign tool of Hong Kong’s Clean Air Network, a nongovernmental group that promotes awareness of, you guessed it, the wretched air quality in this city of seven million.

Green roofs offer antidote to urban heat island effect, say researchers Researchers at Columbia University have demonstrated that a layer of plants and earth can cut the rate of heat absorption through the roof of a building in summer by 84%.

Welsh biochar facility opens up carbon possibilities for farmers WALES is set to benefit from a new £180,000 biochar facility which may transform the way the country tackles climate change.

Aberystwyth University is installing a biomass waste recycling unit designed to produce biochar – a charcoal-like substance – that can be used to improve soil fertility and raise agricultural productivity.

How bad are the next few years going to suck? The hot question in green circles these days is, "what next?" For the last decade, strategy has been built around getting a federal climate bill that would place a cap on carbon emissions. That attempt was supposed to culminate in success this year, but it didn't, so ... what next?

There will be much to say along those lines in coming months. I hope to share words of inspiration and uplift, to stir minds with insight and hearts with passion. To tell great tales of green pastures to come and the heroes who will sail the fleet of righteousness to the golden shores of, uh, the pastures. Just real quick, though, I need to be depressed as hell for a minute.

Prince Charles urges people to wear old clothes Prince Charles, the heir to the British throne, has urged people to wear more old and recycled clothes, and natural fabrics like him so as to help reduce the world's carbon footprint and halt climate change. In an article for this month's 'Vogue' magazine, he wrote about his passion for reusing and repairing things. "On the whole, the older some things are, the more comfortable and familiar they become; they can even be adapted to look new in a different context."

Climate funds shouldn't divert poverty aid, UN says The U.N.’s climate chief says poor countries are right to expect that any funding they receive to combat global warming be kept separate from development aid or poverty relief.

Climate change 'driving a new industrial revolution' Climate change is driving a new industrial revolution that will reward creative thinking and early investment in green technologies, British economist Nicholas Stern says.

The former World Bank president warned high-emitting countries that fell behind in this global ''green race'' to transition to a low-carbon economy could face future trade barriers.

6 global warming skeptics who changed their minds With 2010 shaping up as the warmest year on record and unprecedented heat waves gripping the planet, global warming skeptics have suffered another blow with the defection of the "most high-profile" member of their camp, author Bjorn Lomborg. But Lomborg isn't the first doubter to accept the scientific consensus that human carbon emissions are warming the planet and need to be curtailed. Here, a review of several prominent cases:

Report: Climate change threatens historic Jamestown, Va. Human-caused climate change threatens to flood Jamestown, the first permanent European settlement in what became the American colonies and the United States, says a report Wednesday by environmental groups.

Jamestown Island, the site of the original 1607 settlement, is low enough to be inundated by rising seas and tidal waters -- even if the waters do not rise as much by 2100 as scientists predict, according to the report by Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) and the Colorado-based Rocky Mountain Climate Organization.

Al Gore announces appointing experts to study Pakistan floods ISLAMABAD (APP): President Asif Ali Zardari and Former US vice president Al Gore held a telephonic conversation on Thursday to discuss the situation of recent floods in Pakistan and its possible linkage with the climate change.President Zardari while discussing the causes of floods indicated that the factor of climate change and its impact should also be examined in this regard. He said the international community must take this environmental subject seriously so that solutions could be found out for the overall betterment of the world.

Climate change puts China harvests at risk PARIS (AFP) – Climate change could reduce key harvests in China by a fifth if the gloomiest scenarios prove true, according to a study on Wednesday.

Publishing in the journal Nature, a team of Chinese scientists say China's climate "has clearly warmed" over the past half century, gaining 1.2 degrees Celsius (2.2 degrees Fahrenheit) since 1960.

A major geothermal project in California has been stopped after it was found to generate earthquakes. This follows the halting of a similar project in Switzerland for the same reason. Hopes of tapping the heat in the earth's bedrock as a virtually limitless source of clean energy now seem much more remote, given these two high profile failures.http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/12/science/earth/12quake.html (http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/12/science/earth/12quake.html)

Trinidad and Tobago Energy Minister Conrad Enill will be the keynote speaker at the 9th Annual Energy Conference taking place at the Hilton Trinidad Conference Centre on 7th and 8th December 2009. The theme of this year’s conference is Caribbean Energy in a Post-Finiancial Crisis World.

SANTO DOMINGO, Dominican Republic, Feb. 04, 2009 PeakOil-PS -- The Dominican Republic (DR) government and Sunovia Energy Technologies from the United States have signed an agreement to install the first solar energy plant in the country, according to a Sunovia company press release.

CHARLESTOWN, Nevis, October 20, 2008 - Officials of West Indies Power (WIP) have confirmed that at least two geothermal drill sites on Nevis have the capacity to produce hundreds of megawatts of geothermal energy.

SANTO DOMINGO, Dominican Republic, Sept 04, 2008. PeakOilParagigm Shift -– Listin Diario reports that Radhames Suero Milano, executive vice president of the Empresa de Generacion Hidroelectrica Dominicana (Egeih), the government entity that groups hydroelectric power producers, has announced that this year three dams will begin to produce 54.1 megawatts, bringing low cost energy to the power network.

Iowa is to corn ethanol what Saudi Arabia is to oil. At present Iowa has the capacity to produce 3.5 billion gallons of ethanol per year, which is 26% of the nation's total. This is of course due to the large amount of corn production in Iowa, enabled by ample rainfall and rich topsoil.

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RICHARD GILBERT and DAVID BRAGDON discuss the future of transportation systems as we near the end of cheap oil. What are the solutions? How will we get there? Are we facing the end of the internal combustion engine?

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A midweekly roundup of peak oil news, including:
-Prices and production
-China continues to grow

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Brenda Boardman continues to do pioneering work in the field of fuel poverty in Britain. She is Emeritus Fellow with the Lower Carbon Futures at the Environmental Change Institute at the University of Oxford. Twenty years ago, Boardman wrote her landmark study, Fuel Poverty: From Cold Homes to Affordable Warmth, which provided the first quantifiable definition of fuel poverty (ie. when a household spends more than 10% of its income on energy services).

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We have a guest post today, from Jules Peck (see left), originally posted at Citizen Renaissance.com.  We have had some initial explorations of this here at Transition Culture already, but Jules offers some useful additional insights into what the Big Society agenda might mean for Transition, and vice versa.  Our thanks for allowing us to publish his piece here.

Big Society – Small State.

“Countering Margaret Thatcher’s famous declaration, David Cameron has asserted that “there is such a thing as society”. His vision for this society is based on his Big Society programme of “social action, public service reform and community empowerment… a shift from state action to social action”.  His concept of the Big Society makes a distinct break, at least rhetorically, with the individualist neo-liberal model of the Thatcher era. And its success rests, to a large degree, on the abilities and energy of citizens, communities and the third sector. Citizen Renaissance Movements like Transition Towns (of which I am a great fan) would argue that they have been active in building a Big Society for years.

In giving her support to the Transition Towns community initiative, Theresa May MP reinforced the party’s’ appeal to citizen and community-centric values saying “This is an interesting initiative aimed at getting communities to come together to think seriously about how they can at grass roots level plan for the future and start to make the changes that will be needed.” And a good friend of mine, Transition Towns Chairman Peter Lipman, has also met Big Society Network Chairman Lord Wei at his request to discuss how the Government’s policies and rhetoric can support Transition Towns. This is all very positive and I know that many of us involved in Transition are interested to see in what way the new Government are willing to support their work.

However, it is important to ask what role Conservatives see for the state in supporting and empowering this? We know that Cameron and most Tories are ideologically anti-state. Cameron has gone on from the above to say “it’s just not the same thing as the state”. Their view is that the state needs to roll back and allow society to roll forwards. But this raises a number of questions. Firstly, what support will the state be willing to give citizens, communities and the third sector in their work on community? And secondly, what roles will the state play in removing neoliberal market barriers to community flourishing?

The role of the state in supporting community flourishing

On this first point, we have seen that the Big Society programme includes things like; reforming planning to give neighbourhoods more ability to determine the shape of their communities, powers to help communities save local facilities and services, training a new generation of community organisers and supporting the creation of neighbourhood groups, supporting the creation and expansion of mutuals, co-operatives, charities and social enterprises, and using funds from dormant bank accounts to establish a Big Society Bank, which will provide new finance for neighbourhood groups, charities, social enterprises and other nongovernmental bodies.

This all sounds positive and maps well against many of the things Transition and other citizen and community groups are doing around the country already. Indeed extra powers and funds for Transition and other community groups will be welcomed. But will this come with strings attached and a demand that the Government has a say in what is specifically intended to be a grassroots deliberative and democratic movement co-created by citizens themselves?

The role of the state in removing barriers to community flourishing

As Green Alliance CEO Stephen Hale has said “The neo-liberal version of Conservatism that has had such a strong influence on American and British Conservative thinking over the past thirty years has proven very environmentally destructive. It has promoted ‘market forces’ to the detriment of communities and family life. It has tended to foster economic growth without a proper regard for the environment, and to be reluctant to intervene in imperfect markets. There are notable exceptions of course, but the dominant underlying ideology has led to irreversible environmental damage.”

Amongst a host of other issues for which there is no space here, such neoliberalism includes a dogmatic fear of an appropriate, facilitating role for the state. So what of the role of the state in supporting the strengthening of community?

Let’s take Conservatives at their word and see what they have said on this. Andrew Tyrie MP writes this “Our success will partly be measured by the extent to which we can convince the public that reining back the intrusiveness of the state under a conservative government will not lead to the atrophy of community. The state will nonetheless discharge important obligations in supporting communities, institutions and individuals, but not always from the centre.”

Cameron has also been clear that there is a role for the state in supporting community “we achieve progressive aims through decentralising responsibility and power to individuals, communities and civic institutions. The task of Government is to create the environment in which the social norms and institutions which enable reciprocity can flourish.”

Oliver Letwin agrees with this “[Personal freedoms] can indeed only be achieved through ‘collective action’. They all need action from government… But much of that action has to work through family and community and social enterprise – essential ingredients of safer streets and of the escape from poverty… Thatcher wanted to roll back the frontiers of the state. Brown wants to roll forward the frontiers of the state. Cameron wants to roll forward the frontiers of society.”

And so does David Willetts “[F]ree market economics, like patriotism, is not enough… the conservative tradition placed as much importance on our shared values and our sense of community as it did on the role of private property and free markets.  The task of Government is to create the environment in which the social norms and institutions which enable reciprocity can flourish.” Finally, ResPublica’s Philip Blond is quite clear that Compassionate Conservatism needs to repudiate neoliberalism and shift to Conservative values which are “socially conservative but sceptical of neo-liberal economics”.

All well and good, some of the leading players in the Government seem to be saying that there is a role for the state in empowering community flourishing. This rhetoric is all very well. But often what has come hand in hand with a neoliberal free market approach has been a strong belief in low taxation, especially for the wealthy, and in cuts in the size, nature and extent of the welfare state.

Heading in the wrong direction?

No one will have missed a parallel agenda of another leading player in the Government and his massive spending cuts. Economist David Blanchflower has said that Osbornes pre-election commitments to massive spending cuts, now being delivered in power “amounts to a declaration of class war”.

The Big Society programme has a series of policies which invoke and encourage the strengthening of community. However, it is not yet clear whether these efforts will be undermined by the spending cuts agenda which could threaten to do great damage to communities and Britain’s poorest citizens.

Some of the cuts threatened will have significant impacts on social justice and communities. One example includes more than 400,000 vulnerable citizens, including pensioners and victims of domestic violence, possibly being in line to lose their homes and see care entitlement scrapped if the Treasury carries out its threat to cut 40% from the £1.6bn ‘Supporting People’ Programme. Other likely cuts include things like Sure Start, the Future Jobs Fund, the scrapping of free school meals for 500,000 low-income families, the free swimming scheme for children and pensioners, the Future Jobs Fund, the Child Trust Fund, the freezing of child benefit, the cut in housing benefit and the VAT rise. All of these may well act to hollow society out from the centre and mean it is far less able to focus time and energy on grassroots change.

A recent report by the Institute of Fiscal Studies (interestingly the previous employer of Osborne’s main advisor Rupert Harrison) shows clearly that the spending cuts agenda will hit the poorest in society hardest. The report concluded “Once all of the benefit cuts are considered, the tax and benefit changes announced in the emergency Budget are clearly regressive as, on average, they hit the poorest households more than those in the upper middle of the income distribution in cash, let alone percentage, terms.”

There are also real concerns also that a reliance on the third sector and on private companies is both lacking in accountability and likely to fall short of the gap created by cut backs in state support for communities, their infrastructures and their services. Many third sector organisations get significant proportions of their funds from local councils.

As these councils are now being forced to cut up to 30% of their expenditures, this will hit the third sector’s ability to deliver on Cameron’s Big Society vision. Services such as after-school clubs, play schemes, domestic violence charities, rape crisis centres, parenting programmes, projects to tackle youth crime, and support schemes for isolated older people are all threatened by these cuts. With other donations falling as a result of the recession and this to continue to worsen with the VAT rise in January; many third sector organisations are very worried.

Sir Stuart Etherington, chief executive of the National Council for Voluntary Organisations, has said “Small scale community activity is fundamentally important to civil society. It depends on small grants, and if these are wiped out this will remove the very support structures that community groups depend on and undermine the big society.” Likewise Stephen Bubb, CEO of the Association of Chief Executives of Voluntary Organisations, said the cuts meant the government would struggle to “close the gap between its heady rhetoric and current reality. It’s just like the 1980s. Charities are seen as the easy target.”

Stephen Cook, Editor Third Sector has echoed this saying “The mantra of ‘doing more with less’ will be carved on the doorway of more and more voluntary groups. In these circumstances it is increasingly important that we hear more about the big society from the government than pious rhetoric and the gnomic utterances of Lord Wei.” And Toby Blume, CEO of UrbanForum has said “The credibility of the Big Society is significantly undermined by the impact of economic policy on charities and voluntary groups, as announcements of cuts to funding emerge on an almost daily basis.”

Minister for Civil Society, Nick Hurd MP has responded to these challenges saying “There is clearly a significant risk to the Big Society agenda,” and that he will be telling other ministers to “think about the impact on the local and voluntary sector” and “make sure the state minimises the damage.”

Conclusion and questions for the Big Society

So this raises a few questions which the Big Society really must answer. Will support for citizen/community initiatives come with Government strings attached? Or will Government recognise that a key element in the success of grassroots initiatives like Transition is that they are ‘of the people and for the people’. And that they are based on participative democracy and emergent properties of citizens flourishing within their own communities. In short not things which Government should seek to influence.

And most importantly of all, how will the Government ensure that the current spending cuts regime does not completely undermine all their fine talk of rolling forwards a Big Society?

About the author

Jules was for two years Director of David Cameron’s Quality of Life Policy Group, advising the Conservative Party on wellbeing and environment issues. A committed Citizen, he has spent the past 20 years advising business, NGOs and government institutions on sustainability issues and Wellbeing. In a varied career Jules has worked in on environmental issues in Brussels at the EC, in the US and EU in marketing and public affairs roles with a number of companies and internationally for WWF as a Global Policy Adviser.

Jules’s recent publications include: Blueprint for a Green Economy (2007), Let Them Eat Cake (2006), Hope and Glory (2008).

In advance of the publication next week of Chris Bird’s Transition Book ‘Local Sustainable Homes’, I spoke to Chris about the book, and about what he set out to achieve in writing it.  The book will be available to order here at Transition Culture from next Thursday (the 9th).

So Chris, how does ‘Local Sustainable Homes’ differ from all the other green building books out there?

You could fill a bookshop with volumes on green building. There are so many works on sustainable design and construction and green materials that choosing what to read has become almost as difficult as deciding which spectacle frames to wear! But this book is different because it concentrates on how individuals, groups and communities are making it happen. Okay, I admit that in places the book does drift into looking at materials and construction methods but the bread and butter of the text deals with examples from around the country of how people are making sustainable homes a concrete reality – but without the concrete!

What do you think is unique about the Transition take on housing?

In a word? People and communities. Oh, that’s three! The transition movement is making resilient communities the central plank for building a sustainable future. Perfect eco-homes, whatever they might be, won’t solve the problem of climate change or prepare us for a future without cheap fossil fuels. We have to see sustainable housing in the context of sustainable communities. Imagine a house built with local timber, insulated with strawbales from a nearby farm and roofed with slates from a local quarry.

The window frames and doors are supplied by a local carpenter and the energy comes from a district heating system and a community owned wind turbine. The occupants get much of their food from a community supported agriculture scheme and also work locally. Not only does their home have a much lower carbon footprint and less embedded energy but it’s also stimulating a virtuous circle of local enterprise. When homes like this, whether they are newly built or refurbished, become the norm, then our communities will be more cohesive and better equipped to tackle climate change and cope with the problems that peak oil will bring.

What surprised you most while researching this book?

Almost as soon as I started gathering information two things became clear. First, there were lots more interesting projects going on than I had thought       possible. I could have filled the book just with stories about low impact developments or what housing associations are doing. Second, the pace of change means that new projects are being launched all the time so I was constantly rewriting to keep up to date. Fortunately the whole project, from start of researching to publication, was only just over a year so the book is pretty up to date. So I suppose the big surprise was just how much is happening out there. But that doesn’t mean we can be complacent. At a rough guess I’d say we need to increase the scale of our activity around sustainable homes a thousand-fold to really deal with the problem!

What does ‘Local Sustainable Homes’ teach us about the current state of the Transition movement?

It would have been much more difficult to write this book as an individual rather than as a transition activist. Access to transition initiatives around the country and overseas through the Transition Network was immensely valuable so, even at this early stage of development, the movement is a valuable tool for learning from and disseminating local experience.

But we need to recognise that, despite our successes, the Transition movement is still just a small part of the picture. Most of the people and projects described in ‘Local Sustainable Homes’ have either no links or a very tenous connection to Transition and very few sustainable housing projects are formal Transition initiatives. Is this a problem? Not really. The fact that so many projects are happening already is really encouraging. The fact that they don’t have a Transition label is not an issue.

Cloughjordan, which is now linked to the Transition movement, and Totnes sustainable housing projects like Transition Together and Transition Homes, are valuable examples that I’m sure will be surpassed by communities all over the UK and elsewhere. The Totnes Pound has been eclipsed by the success of local currencies in Lewes and Stroud and the same process of leapfrogging will happen with sustainable housing.

What do you feel are the key ingredients in a community housing project?

Community. By that I mean the things that bind people together for the common purpose of making their homes and neighbourhoods more sustainable. There are many examples in the book of people coming together to face a threat to their communities such as an unwelcome housing or office development or unnecessary demolition, then using this new cohesiveness to launch something positive. But community cohesion can develop in other ways. Building links between people in existing communities through programmes such as Transition Together or  people with a shared vision such as low impact development or cohousing develop shared goals that see them through the difficulties they encounter.

Of course there are ways of building and laying out homes that foster productive interactions. George Monbiot dealt with this in a recent article but most of the estates we want to turn into communities have already been built so our starting point must be the people themselves.

Transition promotes the use of local building materials.  How big a part do you think they will play in the future, or can industrial materials do things that more local, natural materials simply cannot do?  How purist should we be?

One of the points I make in the book is that we need to reduce the embodied energy in new homes and refurbishments as well as everyday energy consumption. An ‘eco-home’ built with high energy fossil fuel based materials may consume very little energy in the long term but it will take decades to pay back the carbon debt created by building the house in the first place – and climate change is a problem NOW! Even if the problem of carbon emissions was not so urgent why develop a dependency on construction methods and materials that will be unsustainable with the end of cheap oil?

Local materials are vital to sustainable construction because you immediately reduce the transport emissions associated with materials carried from across the country or half-way round the world. What’s the true cost of slates from China or paving slabs from India when we include the environmental damage their production and transport cause?

Using local timber, straw, hemp, earth, stone, wool and a host of other materials also boosts local economies, helps create resilient communities and brings back a regional identity to our buildings. And many of these materials lock up carbon so new buildings and refurbishments can actually be carbon negative

Don’t get me wrong. I’m not suggesting a return to the cold and drafty buildings of the 18th or 19th century. We need a new synthesis of modern construction methods and traditional materials to create homes that are a pleasure to live in but don’t cost us the earth.

Some specialist materials and products – glass, photovoltaics, heat pumps – may best be sourced from outside the local area. We shouldn’t lay down rigid rules but use common sense. So no, we shouldn’t be purists, but neither should we give up too easily in the search for local and sustainable low energy alternatives.

In the book you tell the story of the TTT Building and Housing group and what it has achieved thus far.  You have been involved since early in its evolution, what lessons do you feel you have learnt about what is possible for such groups to achieve?

Wow! The sky’s the limit. Set realistic goals but never imagine that there are limits to what can be achieved. Build on what’s already happening in your area but don’t be constrained by it. Aim for a mix of education, practical action and inspiring projects. Remember that the dividing lines between different transition theme groups are arbitrary so don’t be afraid to work with other groups on joint projects. Be organised with regular business meetings, mailing lists, events and discussions and try to involve as many people in conducting the business as possible. This creates a sense of ownership and involvement and prevents a few people getting burnt out because they are doing everything – but that applies to almost any campaigning organisation.

I think the key factor in the success of the Building & Housing Group in Totnes is that we have a solid core of people who have been involved for the past few years and just keep coming to meetings and getting involved in projects. How to build and maintain such a group will vary in each area and we don’t have any magic formula. Just use whatever mix of education, agitation, organisation and inspiration that works.

Any final thoughts you would like to share?

I’ve really enjoyed researching and writing this book and I hope people learn as much from reading it as I have from creating it. When we first discussed the idea of a book on sustainable housing for the Transition series I envisaged a very different end result from the book that will be published in a few days. So the book really is the product of what I came across while traveling around the country, trawling through the internet and talking to hundreds of people rather than just flesh on the bones of an original concept. I hope people beg, borrow or hopefully buy a copy and I really hope they’ll be kind enough to tell me what’s wrong with it!

A study by a German military think tank has analyzed how "peak oil" might change the global economy. The internal draft document -- leaked on the Internet -- shows for the first time how carefully the German government has considered a potential energy crisis.

The Peak Oil issue is so politically explosive that it's remarkable when an institution like the Bundeswehr, the German military, uses the term "peak oil" at all. But a military study currently circulating on the German blogosphere goes further.

The study is a product of the Future Analysis department of the Bundeswehr Transformation Center, a think tank tasked with fixing a direction for the German military. The team of authors, led by Lieutenant Colonel Thomas Will, uses sometimes-dramatic language to depict the consequences of an irreversible depletion of raw materials. It warns of shifts in the global balance of power, of the formation of new relationships based on interdependency, of a decline in importance of the western industrial nations, of the "total collapse of the markets" and of serious political and economic crises.

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A study by a German military think tank has analyzed how "peak oil" might change the global economy. The internal draft document -- leaked on the Internet -- shows for the first time how carefully the German government has considered a potential energy crisis. (excerpts)
Update: English translation of table of contents and lead paragraphs.

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Iowa - The Saudi Arabia of Ethanol

Iowa is to corn ethanol what Saudi Arabia is to oil. At present Iowa has the capacity to produce 3.5 billion gallons of ethanol per year, which is 26% of the nation’s total (Source). This is of course due to the large amount of corn production in Iowa, enabled by ample rainfall and rich topsoil.

But Iowa differs from Saudi Arabia with respect to energy production in one very important detail: Saudi Arabia satisfies their own energy needs with the oil they produce, and exports the excess. Iowa on the other hand exports the vast majority of the ethanol they produce while importing gasoline as motor fuel.

Gasoline consumption in Iowa is presently around 1.6 billion gallons per year (Source). This is the energy equivalent of 2.4 billion gallons per year of ethanol. Yet amazingly, Iowa does not have an E10 blend mandate (that is, a mandate for a mixture of 90% gasoline and 10% ethanol) that is so common in many other states. Of the 3.5 billion gallons of ethanol Iowa produces each year, only 100 million gallons is consumed in the state (less than 3%!). Perhaps even more amazing is that Iowa — seemingly the best candidate in the U.S. for biofuel self-sufficiency — ranks in the Top 10 consumers of gasoline per capita in the U.S. (Source).

Iowa is a state that by all accounts should be able to satisfy their own liquid fuel needs with ethanol, and still have some left for export. They are perhaps unique in the U.S. in that respect. Instead, petroleum continues to supply over 90% of the motor fuel in Iowa, and virtually all of the fuel used in the farm equipment for growing all of that corn. Something is wrong with this picture.

Why Isn’t Iowa Self-Sufficient?

That is a perplexing question. If ethanol is a real alternative to gasoline, why hasn’t it taken over the marketplace in Iowa? Ethanol should have a greater advantage over gasoline in Iowa than probably in any other state. And in fact, the price spread between gasoline and E85 (the 85% ethanol blend) is consistently higher in Iowa than in other states (Source). The reported price spread in Iowa as of July 2010 was 30.1%, which should be large enough to drive consumers to E85 over gasoline. So what is the problem?

There are three possible problems that I can identify:

1). Perhaps there isn’t enough E85 infrastructure in place.
2). There aren’t enough E85 vehicles on the road;
3). The price is still too high relative to gasoline.

Regarding infrastructure, as of January 2010, there were an estimated 136 service stations in Iowa selling E85 (out of 977 total service stations) and a total of 2,233 Stations selling E85 in the United States (Source). Iowa also has an incentive program in place to install new E85 infrastructure (see below), but with 136 stations across the state (and growing), availability doesn’t seem to be a major limiting factor.

The availability of E85 vehicles may be a more serious impediment. As of 2009, there are reportedly around 8 million vehicles on U.S. roads that are E85 capable (Source). Given a total vehicle population of around 250 million, that means that only around 3% of the cars on the road are E85-capable. (I could not find statistics specific to Iowa). This would seem to be a limiting factor at present for E85 penetration; E85 can’t capture 10% of the market if only 3% of the cars can burn it.

Yet even with some E85 vehicles on the road, sales of E85 in Iowa have been falling and sales of ethanol in general lag the rest of the U.S.:

Final 2009 Iowa Ethanol Sales Figures Show Step Back for State

JOHNSTON, IA – The Iowa Renewable Fuels Association (IRFA) today announced that Iowans chose E10, a 10 percent ethanol and 90 percent gasoline blend, only 73 percent of the time during 2009 according to Iowa Department of Revenue (IDR) figures. According to the Des Moines Register, Iowa ranks 32nd in ethanol sales despite being the leading ethanol producer.

“Iowa’s ethanol sales did not reach the 2009 goal of the Iowa Renewable Fuels Standard,” said Monte Shaw, IRFA Executive Director. “These are figures based on mandatory reporting of taxable gallons to the State of Iowa and the IRS – not an incomplete, voluntary report. Obviously, IRFA members are disappointed in the results. The state has also released E85 sales for the first nine months of 2009. During those three quarters, E85 sales were down 15% compared to 2008.”

The number of E85 vehicles has been slowly rising, so if E85 sales are falling then there is also apparently a cost factor that is coming into play. For much of 2008, the price differential between E85 and gasoline was 15-20% (historical pricing available at E85prices.com). For the first half of 2009, that price differential had fallen to only 10%. Clearly, if E85 is ever to become the dominant fuel in Iowa, the price differential will have to properly reflect the fuel economy difference of E85 versus gasoline. E85 contains about 25% less energy than gasoline on a volumetric basis. Owners that experience a 25% reduction in fuel economy will expect to pay 25% less for their fuel. In fact, they may expect to pay 30% less due to having to refuel more often.

But, a real game-changer could be ethanol-optimized engines such as that touted by Detroit-based automotive engineering firm Ricardo. While their engine is projected to cost more, they project that they will deliver fuel economy from E85 that is comparable to what can be achieved with gasoline. (I reported on this concept in some detail in All BTUs Are Not Created Equally). In that case, consumers may be willing to buy E85 at a lower differential. The caveats here are that the engine is still in the lab, and the higher engine cost will determine the E85 differential that consumers will expect.

Recommendations

Before making recommendations, it is important to clearly set out the objective. As I have said numerous times, corn ethanol may not be a sustainable solution that is broadly applicable across the U.S. However, I do believe that it could be a very good solution in specific regions. Ethanol made from irrigated corn and shipped to California is in an entirely different sustainability category than ethanol produced and used locally in Iowa. In fact, despite my reputation as an enemy of ethanol from people who are careless with their interpretations, I have used Iowa for years as an example of what sustainable corn ethanol could look like. I have long believed that Iowa is in a good position to lead the way forward.

So from my perspective, the objective would be to increase the sustainability of ethanol — starting in Iowa — by increasing local consumption. This would decrease U.S. dependence on foreign oil more than if we have to transport oil from the coasts inland to Iowa while transporting ethanol from Iowa to the coasts.

Pump infrastructure in Iowa does not appear to be the limiting factor. Plus, Iowa already has good incentives in place that support rolling out additional E85 pumps (See Current E85 Incentives below). Iowa also already has a tax credit in place that is specifically directed at E85 sales (which is on top of the national ethanol tax credit). Ultimately, additional incentives may be required, as evidenced by falling E85 sales in the past year. Incentives could be in the form of direct E85 tax credits or fuel tax reductions or waivers. But the real issue seems to be lack of E85 vehicles.

According to automakers, the vehicles are on the way:

US automakers on track for more ethanol vehicles

U.S. automakers also expect to meet a goal of making half their vehicle production flex-fuel by 2012, up from around 30 percent now. But they warn that they could pull back if there aren’t enough gas stations with ethanol pumps.

On the other hand comes news that people may not be interested in buying them:

Flex fuel vehicles may be on the way out

When it comes to buying cars, Americans are still using the price of the vehicle as the primary deciding factor. A well-priced, fuel-efficient vehicle is the car of choice for Americans and this is bad news for the flex fuel vehicle industry. In a survey conducted by Harris Interactive, only 5 percent of respondents said they would be extremely likely to purchase a flex fuel vehicle, even if it only added $250 to the base price of the vehicle.

So it would appear that consumers may need some convincing before they are ready to take the plunge on an E85 vehicle. There are several ways to incentivize sales of E85 vehicles. The worst is probably just to mandate that vehicles sold in the state of Iowa are E85-compatible. (I think this is the worst because mandates often have unintended consequences; hence I prefer incentives over mandates). Probably the most manageable would be rebates or expanded tax credits — at the state or federal level — for the purchase of an E85 vehicle. Instead of a Cash for Clunkers program (which I was not a fan of), we would have been better served to have a cash for E85 vehicles program.

Such a program should probably be driven from within Iowa. After all, they arguably stand to benefit from using the ethanol they produce and moving toward true energy independence. Transportation costs cited in the recent DOE study on the proposed ethanol pipeline (that I discussed here) suggested that railing ethanol costs $0.19/gallon (shipping via pipeline was cited at $0.28/gal). Imagine that only half of the ethanol produced in Iowa is used in Iowa; there is a potential shipping savings of over $330 million per year. (However, under the present system these costs are passed through to consumers out of state, so it might be hard for Iowa to justify a program on the basis of savings for Iowans).

Beyond personal transportation, corn growers should be pushing for tractors that can run off of ethanol. They can be built. In 2006 the Saskatchewan Research Council unveiled a tractor modified to operate on 100 per cent hydrated ethanol. More on that development here:

From late December 2006 to late January 2007, the 120 horsepower ethanol-fuelled tractor clocked 60 hours of running time and got fuel mileage of 24 litres per hour. It takes about 15 bushels of wheat to create one tank of hydrated ethanol for the tractor, says Rueve, explaining that the fuel consists of 94 per cent alcohol and 6 per cent water.

As farm input costs increase, both the tractor and the truck are examples of developments that may make farm operations more sustainable in the future. Meanwhile, biofuels in general offer one option for those who are looking for ways to revitalize the rural economy.

So often we hear about how ethanol is providing homegrown fuel for automobiles, and yet the tractors that produce the homegrown corn run off of petroleum. I think it would be in the best interest of Iowa and of the country as a whole (given Iowa’s importance as a food producer) to break the petroleum dependence of Iowa’s farms by building tractors that can run off of ethanol (or biodiesel).

Conclusions

Iowa could be self-sufficient with their ethanol production if certain policies are supported. Some policies are already in place that are meant to address E85 availability and cost. However, the availability of E85 vehicles and the willingness of consumers to buy them is probably the key limiting factor. Ultimately, building up an E85 market in Iowa and eventually in the rest of the Midwest could solve a number of issues for the ethanol industry. If the Midwest adopted E85 as its flagship fuel, there would be no blend wall to be concerned about, nor would an expensive ethanol pipeline be needed to export ethanol out of the region. The potential market across the Midwest is triple the nation’s current ethanol production, giving ethanol producers an ample opportunity to grow without forcing national mandates that put E15 into cars that aren’t designed for it.

Current E85 Incentives

Iowa has tax credits in place specific to E85 sales:

E85 Retailer Tax Credit

A tax credit is available to retail stations dispensing E85 for use in motor vehicles in the amount of $0.20 per gallon for calendar year 2010, and $0.10 per gallon in calendar year 2011. After 2011, the tax credit decreases by $0.01 each year and expires after December 31, 2020. Taxpayers claiming the E85 tax credit may also claim the tax credit available for retail ethanol blends for the same gallon of fuel and tax year. (Reference Iowa Code 422.11O)

And toward blending infrastructure:

Biofuels Infrastructure Grants

The Renewable Fuel Infrastructure Program provides financial assistance to E85 and biodiesel retailers. Cost-share grants are available for up to 70% of the total cost of the project, or $50,000, whichever is less, to upgrade or install new E85 or biodiesel infrastructure. Applicants may also qualify for supplemental incentives for up to 75% of the cost of making the improvement, or $30,000, whichever is less, to upgrade or replace an E85 fueling dispenser that has not been approved by an independent testing laboratory. The supplemental incentive is available only to applicants who made the improvement no later than 60 days after the date of the publication in the Iowa administrative bulletin of the state fire marshal’s order providing that a commercially available fueling dispenser is listed as compatible for use with E85 by an independent testing laboratory.

Biodiesel distributors may apply for a cost-share grant for infrastructure upgrades and installations at biodiesel terminal facilities. Facilities blending or dispensing blends ranging from B2 to B98 are eligible for up to 50% of the total project, or $50,000, whichever is less. Facilities blending or dispensing B99 or B100 are eligible for up to 50% of the total project, or $100,000, whichever is less. The Renewable Fuels Infrastructure Board was established under the guidance of the Iowa Department of Economic Development; this 11-member board has authority to determine the eligibility of applicants. (Reference Iowa Code 15G.202-15G.204)

Additional work near the Deepwater Horizon well site continues to be delayed by high waves. Once the current weather pattern clears, work can commence again.

We understand that today, Wednesday, BP is expect to submit a new report evaluating lessons learned in its response to the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico to U.S. regulator the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation and Enforcement. According to BP, "This report focuses in particular upon the key equipment, facilities and planning tools that were successfully deployed in responding to the spill." There will be another report released by BP later this month, which will examine the causes of the explosion.

Some new devices that we have not commented on are the new Wave Gliders that will monitor water quality. BP is deploying these in the Gulf of Mexico, near the Macondo well site. According to an August 25th press release:

As part of its long term monitoring and research program in the Gulf of Mexico, BP is deploying a new technology that will enable nearly constant monitoring by two satellite-controlled, unmanned vehicles.

The vehicles, known as Wave Gliders and developed by Liquid Robotics in Silicon Valley, California, get their propulsion power from wave action and use solar power for their electronics. They will be deployed beginning today and begin a months-long, ongoing research program in the Gulf of Mexico.

According to the press release, the types of monitoring performed will include

• water quality – detection of any emulsified, dissolved and dispersed oil in water; phytoplankton (chlorophyll); colored, dissolved oxygen matter (CDOM) and other scientifically useful variables
• marine mammal vocalizations
• weather and water temperature data

The first step in using the devices will be calibrating the optical sensors, according to Roger Hine, president and CEO of Liquid Robotics. "We look forward to working with BP on this extended research program."

There is also a Wave Glider Fact Sheet available. It indicates

Typically robotic systems have been challenged by limited battery power. The Wave Glider innovatively overcomes this challenge. It uses no fuel, has no motor, and no propeller - but it can swim in any direction at speeds up to two knots - for as long as necessary. It uses a unique, patented, system for converting even the tiniest amount of wave motion into thrust, in any direction. It uses solar panels to power electronics, and houses a sophisticated set of sensors, satellite communications, and microprocessors.

According to the fact sheet, the technology was invented, originally, to listen to humpback whale song. The Wave Glider fleet has been at sea for a combined total of 11.5 years and has covered over 100,000 miles.

Oil Price Ignores Long-Term Supply Worries You could be excused for seeing a grim metaphor for the death of the oil age in the scenes of destruction visited on the U.S. Gulf coast this summer.

However, production from the ocean floor is growing more quickly than from any other type of reserve and is supposed to allay concerns about ‘peak oil’, the idea that the amount of crude the world can produce might suddenly decline.

Now, so far, this notion hasn’t had much of an impact on energy prices.

But, as cheaper oil fields are run down and more crude is drawn from expensive, hard-to-reach offshore reserves, the costs of energy supply are starting to rise.

Drilling agency imposes conflict-of-interest rules WASHINGTON – Scandalized by federal regulators who had sex with oil company executives and negotiated with them for jobs, the agency that oversees offshore drilling is imposing a first-ever ethics policy that bars inspectors from dealing with a company that employs a family member or personal friend.

Michael Bromwich, head of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, said the new policy should help restore credibility to his beleaguered agency, which was widely criticized under its former name — the Minerals Management Service — for being too close with oil and gas companies.

President Barack Obama and Interior Secretary Ken Salazar have pledged to end the agency's "cozy relationship" with industry and slow the revolving door between government and the energy industry.

Pemex looks to shale Pemex is considering opening an entire line of exploration that concentrates on shale gas wells in the northern state of Coahuila.

Pemex board member Hector Moreira told Market News International the new line could reduce the company's dependence on natural gas imports.

OPEC oil output falls to lowest since Nov 2009 LONDON (Reuters) - OPEC crude oil supply fell in August to the lowest since November 2009 as reduced supplies from Nigeria, the United Arab Emirates and Iraq offset increased output in Angola, a Reuters survey showed on Wednesday.

Supply from the 11 members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries with output targets, all except Iraq, averaged 26.83 million barrels per day (bpd) last month, down from 26.95 million bpd in July, according to the survey of oil companies, OPEC officials and analysts.

The Gas Bulls of Summer Turn into Bears Recently, the last of the raging bulls on natural gas prices traded in their horns for bear uniforms – and we don’t mean the Monsters of the Midway variety! By throwing in the towel on gas prices for this year, these bulls-turned-bears then proceeded to claw their future gas price forecast by stating they expected $6 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf) to be the long-term average. The reality is that these bulls of summer were really merely acknowledging the power of the market as natural gas prices are about two dollars per Mcf below where they were at the start of 2010, and well below the $7.50/Mcf average gas price the bulls had forecast.

Feds downplay risk of leak when well cap moved The federal government's point man on the Gulf of Mexico spill response said Wednesday there is no "significant risk" that more oil will leak into the sea when engineers remove the temporary cap Thursday that first contained the gusher in mid-July.

Retired Coast Guard Adm. Thad Allen said vessels will remain on standby just in case to collect any leaking oil.

FACTBOX - Key political risks to watch in Uganda (Reuters) - Uganda expects to become an oil-producing nation in 2011, but a protracted dispute with British exploration firm Heritage Oil may delay production and risks unsettling other investors.

With the potential to be a top 50 oil producer, Uganda stands to reduce its budget dependence on foreign aid and improve poor infrastructure.

Nissan starts selling all-electric Leaf sedan today At long last, Nissan begins taking actual orders today for the first next-generation fully electric car from a major automaker, the Leaf.

Carpooling Passengers might be the most under-appreciated factor in how much fuel and money you waste. As I write this, for example, a business headline boasts of Toyota’s multi-million-dollar plan to boost fuel efficiency by 25 percent, with the usual discussion of what this will mean for the economy and the climate. Any of us, however, can boost the efficiency of our cars by several hundred percent instantly, with no additional expense or technology, simply by getting more people in the car.

This fact is also forgotten when we judge car owners by the wastefulness of their vehicles. An SUV is a spectacularly inefficient machine compared to a Prius, for example, but pack that Dodge Durango full of people and suddenly it is greener than the electric hybrid driven alone.

Transit systems easier to predict with smart phone apps Allen Stern says he had a 40-minute wait between buses when he lived in Manhattan. Using a free mobile app that became available about a year ago, he could at least tap into the Metropolitan Transit Authority with his cellphone and find out exactly how far away the next bus was from his stop.

Jatropha: A new form of energy SINGAPORE - Biotechnology firm JOil is confident that it can breed and genetically engineer the Jatropha plant to be a more sustainable alternative to fossil fuel and other biofuels.

It plans to create a Jatropha hybrid that can produce more fruits and match the four to six tonnes of oil per hectare that palm trees can generate.

Pedal power takes off as exercise produces electricity Pedal power is gaining traction as thousands of bikes and elliptical machines are retrofitted to produce electricity.

Gyms are using sweat equity to help power their facilities. A Brooklyn eatery uses it to make smoothies. Female inmates at a Phoenix jail pedal to power their TV to watch soap operas. Actor Ed Begley Jr. bikesrides a bike to run his toaster.

Obama lobbied to add solar panels to White House A campaign to make the White House greener is intensifying as a group of environmentalists plan this month to give President Obama a solar panel that used to sit atop 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

Points of departure There is a strong correlation between energy consumption and economic growth. We can for sure hope for "decoupling" - to be able to have continued economic growth while maintaining or even reducing energy use - but no country has ever managed this Indian rope trick and that does not bode well. Maybe we are high on energy, listening a little to closely to the voice of intoxication, but it will unfortunately all too soon be replaced by a massive hangover.

The Peak Oil Crisis: Prospects for China The key question in all this is how much longer China's economic miracle can continue before the realities of finite mineral resources force a slowdown? Another five years of 10 percent annual economic growth will result in Beijing increasing its oil consumption by another 2.5-3 million barrels per day. This alone would likely mop up much of the world's spare capacity to produce oil and result in very large price increases. When China's ever growing demand is added to that of India, Brazil and the oil exporting states, the likelihood that we will see a substantial increase in oil prices within the next five years becomes very high.

Secret German military study warns of dramatic oil crisis Berlin : A confidential German army study warned of a looming oil crisis which could have dramatic political and economic consequences for the world, the Hamburg-based weekly news magazine Der Spiegel said Tuesday.

According to the report, a think-tank of the German army has for the first time ever analyzed the security policy dimensions of the peak oil problem.

Peak Oil from a Security Studies Perspective The Strategic Institute of the German Bundeswehr has now published a document on the implications of peak oil for security (more precisely: the study was leaked). The study is very well written and recommended as an essential read not only for geostrategist but especially for those involved in global sustainability questions. In fact, at least in wording the authors care about such diverse issues as environmental impact of unconventional oils and the impact of global-marked-induced land-use change on indigenous populations. It is worthwhile to have a closer look on some of their results:

Remembering Matt Simmons Matt Simmons, a long time friend of the Maine coast and its islands and a student of the winds and waters of Gulf of Maine, loved to tell the story of his first trip to Maine, courtesy of a labor strike while he worked construction one summer as a college student in his home state of Utah. When a labor dispute suddenly shut down the construction site, he and a buddy were only too happy to collect their strike checks and head out on a jaunt. They went north into the Canadian Rockies then turned right and headed toward the Inscrutable East, dipping back down into the United States via the border at Jackman, where they drove along the shores of Moosehead Lake before ending up in Boston. On a lark, Matt ducked into the Harvard Business School, which had not had a long history at that point of actively recruiting students from Mormon country in Utah, but the visit was enough to entice him to apply and enroll. Matt loved telling that story because it held the kinds of mutually opposed contradictions he loved to explore-a businessman who owed his right future to a labor strike. If genius is the ability to hold mutually opposing ideas in the mind at the same time without being paralyzed, Matt Simmons would certainly qualify.

Oil Drops, Caps Worst Month Since May, as Hurricane Earl Threatens Demand Oil tumbled, capping its worst month since May, on forecasts Hurricane Earl will pelt the U.S. East Coast, curbing fuel demand during the Labor Day holiday weekend.

Crude dropped the most in 12 weeks amid speculation that stormy weather will keep beachgoers and travelers at home. Labor Day is the traditional end of the U.S. summer driving season, the peak gasoline demand period. U.S. gasoline demand slid to a 12-week low last week, MasterCard Inc. reported today.

“It’s the last thing we need,” said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital LLC, a New York-based hedge fund that focuses on energy. “It’s a big gasoline consumption weekend. Given how poor the gasoline demand has been, it will be a final parting blow for the summer driving season if people won’t hit the beach in droves.”

Ethanol Surpasses Gasoline for First Time Since December For the first time since December, ethanol prices are higher than gasoline as corn surges and refiners profit from tax breaks.

Gas Prices Explained So what determines the price of gasoline? Speculators? Evil conspiring oil companies? Well, actually no. It's demand and supply, of course. On the demand side the American automobile fleet gets better gas mileage than it did a few years ago and Americans, whacked by the recession and high unemployment rates, are driving a bit less than they used to. In addition, thanks to government subsidies, about 9 percent of what goes into our gas tanks is ethanol produced from corn, which also reduces the demand for refined crude. On the supply side, global oil supplies are ample and refiners in the U.S. evidently believed the Obama administration’s rosy “recovery summer” scenarios and stockpiled a lot of gasoline.

Sinopec Plans to Cut September Oil Processing by 4% at Refinery in Hainan China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., Asia’s biggest refiner, will process 4 percent less crude oil at its Hainan plant in September compared with last month, an official at the refinery said.

FACTBOX-Key political risks to watch in Saudi Arabia (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia, under the rule of an ageing King Abdullah, has the dilemma of making reforms that keep the austere clerical establishment that opposes change on side and violent Islamist militants at bay.

Any instability at the helm of Saudi Arabia, which controls more than a fifth of the world's crude oil reserves and is a regional linchpin of U.S. policy in the Middle East, would be a concern for the rest of the Arab Gulf region.

FACTBOX-Key political risks to watch in Yemen (Reuters) - Rising al Qaeda militancy, a surge in violence in a secessionist south and crushing poverty will be this year's critical tests for Yemen, neighbour to top oil exporter Saudi Arabia.

Reid hopeful for GOP energy votes after elections WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said he hoped to pick up Republican votes for a pared-down energy bill after the midterm congressional elections.

"Maybe after the elections we can get some more Republicans to help us on these issues," Reid, a Democrat, told reporters in a teleconference on Tuesday.

Sinopec Sees Solid Gas Growth Ahead While oil production experienced sluggishness in the first half, natural gas production showed solid growth. China is ramping up gas production as it seeks to find alternatives to coal, which emits high carbon levels. It is set to raise the country's energy needs from the current 3% to 10% by 2020.

Insurance likely to reduce BP's liability for Gulf of Mexico oil spill BP PLC has taken on some of the blame for the Deepwater Horizon rig that spilled millions of gallons of oil into the Gulf of Mexico earlier this year, but the company is still expected to have limited liability for mistakes made misreading pressure data that indicated a blowout was imminent.

BP Raises $363 Million in Malaysian Asset Sale to Help Pay for Gulf Spill BP Plc, seeking cash to help pay for the worst U.S. oil spill, agreed to sell its Malaysian chemical assets to Petroliam Nasional Bhd. to focus on projects in China and India.

BP will sell its 15 percent stake in Ethylene Malaysia Sdn and 60 percent interest in Polyethylene Malaysia Sdn for $363 million, the London-based company said today in a statement. It will also be eligible for a possible $48 million dividend from the ethylene unit.

A Nuclear Giant Moves Into Wind Exelon, a nuclear giant that recently backed away from building new nuclear plants, is moving into wind.

Canada company builds major waste-to-biofuel plant VANCOUVER, British Columbia (Reuters) - A Canadian company started construction on Tuesday on what it says is the world's first industrial-scale plant to turn municipal waste into biofuel.

Privately-owned Enerkem Inc said the C$80 million ($75 million) facility in Edmonton, Alberta, will produce enough biofuel to keep more than 400,000 cars a year running on a 5 percent ethanol fuel blend.

Thorium Cures the Free Market Obama could kill fossil fuels overnight with a nuclear dash for thorium ... If Barack Obama were to marshal America's vast scientific and strategic resources behind a new Manhattan Project, he might reasonably hope to reinvent the global energy landscape and sketch an end to our dependence on fossil fuels within three to five years.

New Warnings About Costs of Nuclear Power As anticipation grows about a possible renaissance for the nuclear power industry — and about its potential for curbing greenhouse gas emissions — some politicians are stepping up warnings about the high cost of such projects.

Last week, Traicho Traikov, the Bulgarian economy and energy minister, said the cost of building a second plant near the Danube River had reached 9 billion euros, or $11.4 billion, according to the Sofia News Agency.

The original cost of the project for two reactors was expected to be just under $4 billion.

Homeowners Must Pay Off Energy Improvement Loans Many homeowners who participated in a program that let them repay the cost of solar panels and other energy improvements through an annual surcharge on their property taxes must pay off the loans before they can refinance their mortgages, two government-chartered mortgage companies said Tuesday.

The guidance came from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as efforts to resolve a dispute over the program — called Property Assessed Clean Energy, or PACE — have failed.

Calif. rejects ban on plastic shopping bags SACRAMENTO, Calif. – California lawmakers have rejected a bill seeking to ban plastic shopping bags after a contentious debate over whether the state was going too far in trying to regulate personal choice.

The Democratic bill, which failed late Tuesday, would have been the first statewide ban, although a few California cities already prohibit their use.

A Greener Champagne Bottle “This is how we’re remaking the future of Champagne,” he said, pointing to the area just below the neck. “We’re slimming the shoulders to make the bottle lighter, so our carbon footprint will be reduced to help keep Champagne here for future generations.”

The Champagne industry has embarked on a drive to cut the 200,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide it emits every year transporting billions of tiny bubbles around the world. Producing and shipping accounts for nearly a third of Champagne’s carbon emissions, with the hefty bottle the biggest offender.

Cleaner Cars, A to D The Obama administration has proposed new stickers for cars and light trucks that will make it easier to see whether you are buying a fuel-efficient one or a guzzler, and how much it contributes to global warming. The stickers are a symbol of how far this country has come in providing a wider range of environmentally responsible choices to help ensure cleaner air and a healthier planet.

L.A. mayor, Latino activists take on oil companies over Proposition 23 They say the ballot initiative to suspend the state's climate change law would hurt low-income communities already suffering the most from pollution.

Jeff Rubin: High energy prices make Copenhagen green There is certainly much to be said for Denmark’s leadership in green energy. While North American carbon emissions have risen by around 30 per cent since 1990 (the reference point for the Kyoto Accord), Denmark’s emissions are actually lower than they were two decades ago. That’s generally ascribed to the fact that a world-leading 20 per cent of the power generated in Denmark comes from wind.

Less commonly known is the source of the other 80 per cent. I was surprised to discover that it comes from good old King Coal. In fact, coal’s share of power generation in Denmark’s power grid is basically the same as it is in China.

Tiny creatures reveal ancient sea levels "It was a very big surprise," says David Barnes, lead author of the study at the British Antarctic Survey, of the find of similar bryozoans 2400 kilometres apart in seas on either side of the West Antarctic ice sheet, which is 2 kilometres thick.

"The most likely explanation of such similarity is that this ice sheet is much less stable than previously thought and has collapsed at some point in the recent past," he says.

"And if the West Antarctic ice shelf has been lost in recent times we have to re-think the possibility of loss in future with climate change."

I teach at a prestigious (high-on-ranking-lists) Swedish technical university, but when I mention peak oil, the students just don't "get it", or refuse to contemplate it. I have thus had to think about starting points I personally take for granted and emphasize these in my talks so as to increase the likelihood of my audience "getting it". These 4+1 assumptions are interrelated and they form a logical chain that is easy to follow but hard(er) to refute.

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Open Eco-Home days are a great way of promoting the idea of green building in all its many manifestations.  I have no idea whether the two events were planned to coincide, but two Transition initiatives, Totnes and Stroud, are holding Open Eco-Homes weekends at the same time, the weekend of the 11th-12th September.  The Totnes weekend (see poster left) provides access to 13 houses which have taken steps to reduce their energy use, ranging from a new cob house with a thatched roof (absolutely gorgeous) to some of the houses that have participated in Transition Streets and have made a range of energy efficiency improvements.  You can download the flyer for the weekend in 2 parts, here and here. The Stroud event visits over 20 homes, and has become an established part of the local calendar.  They also produce an excellent leaflet for the event, which you can download here.  You can find out more about the Stroud events here.   Transition Town Lewes also did one last year, but I haven’t been able to find any links to their doing it this year.  Perhaps they, or any other Transition initiative doing one, might let us know in the comments thread below?  Do try and get along to support one of these excellent events…

Next week sees the publication of the next book in the Transition Books series, ‘Local Sustainable Homes: how to make them happen in your community’ by Chris Bird.  More details to follow (including how to order your copy), but as a taster, here is my foreword to the book:

In The Pattern of English Building, his seminal review of vernacular English construction techniques and the wide range of building materials that have defined English architecture – from flint and chalk to clay, oak and straw – Alec Clifton-Taylor wrote:

“all these different materials imposed architectural forms appropriate to their character and, despite the many visual improprieties of the last century and a quarter, the pattern is still remarkably complete. It was the great difficulty of transporting heavy materials which led all but the most affluent until the end of the eighteenth century to build with the materials that were most readily available near the site, even when not very durable.”

In a world that lacked the hydrocarbon punch that today bestows the ability, which we take for granted, to move mountains, people in a wide diversity of locations developed forms of construction that reflected local materials, the local climate and other cultural influences particular to that place. From Devon’s curvaceous cob cottages to the limestone roofs of Dorset; from the intricate timber framing of Suffolk to the granite-walled homes of Leicestershire, it was the materials that defined the forms of building – leading also to a wide range of artisans and craftspeople: masons, ironmongers, lime kiln-keepers, thatchers and so on.

Over the past hundred years, during what one might call ‘The Age of Cheap Oil’, the process of building shelter has, like most other aspects of our lives, become increasingly industrialised. A recent study by British Gas found that houses built during the 1960s were built to such shockingly poor standards of energy efficiency that they performed worse than the Tudor homes of the 1500s. In an oral history interview I did in Totnes, Devon, a man who grew up in the town in the 1960s recalled his grandmother, with whom he and his mother lived, keenly moving out of an old house that was a converted cider press.

“She just wanted modern. She wanted electric fires, electric cookers, electric everything. She wanted automatic this, that and everything. So we moved, at my grandmother’s insistence, from this wonderful rambling old building to a brand-new house, typical of its time. Wooden-framed, single-glazed windows, open fire for a chimney which she quickly replaced with an electric fire (“I’m not having any more of that dirty coal business”). The winters were actually colder than in the previous house. You’d wake up in the morning, and your breath would have condensed on the window, frozen on the inside. Inside it was cold, outside it was cold. Eventually my mother paid for an electric fire to be put in so you could reach out of the bed and turn it on. Electricity was cheap in those days.”

These days our challenges in terms of shelter are different from those of the 1960s. We no longer live in a world of cheap and abundant energy. Promises of ‘electricity too cheap to meter’ have been and gone, and the climate change caused by our burning of fossil fuels is an increasingly urgent issue. It is clear that the target of avoiding a 2°C rise in greenhouse gas emissions is being overtaken by reality: feedbacks not expected for 50-100 years are already under way – the melting of Arctic ice, the release of methane from the seabed, the melting of permafrost, the disappearance of glaciers; the list goes on . . . This is all happening just because of a 0.8°C rise in the levels of CO2 in our atmosphere since fossil-fuel burning began in earnest. The urgent need is not only to reduce emissions, but to seek to phase them out altogether by 2030.

Over the past four years, the rapidly growing Transition movement has argued that climate change cannot be looked at in isolation from the imminent peaking in world oil production, with the resultant price volatility and interruptions to supply. This realisation has mobilised thousands of communities around the world to start planning for life beyond cheap energy – to see the end of the age of cheap energy and the need for urgent decarbonisation not as a disaster but as an opportunity; a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to rethink basic assumptions. Transition Initiatives can now be found in villages, islands, cities, districts, boroughs, universities and schools around the world. They focus on the practicalities of relocalisation, offering a creative process of engagement and awareness-raising that seeks to involve the community in designing a new, and more appropriate, way forward. The impact of Transition thinking is starting to emerge in the most unexpected places. A report in 2010 from Lloyds Insurance and Chatham House argued, as Transition has for the past four years, that peak oil needs to be looked at alongside climate change, and the following quote from that report could have been taken straight from a Transition publication such as this book:

“Energy security is now inseparable from the transition to a low-carbon economy, and businesses plans should prepare for this new reality. Security of supply and emissions-reduction objectives should be addressed equally, as prioritising one over the other will increase the risk of stranded investments or requirements for expensive retrofitting.”

Just as they have in all other aspects of our lives, cheap fossil fuels have come to underpin the way in which we build our homes. In the same way that it has been argued that our current food system means that we are, in effect, as Dale Allen Pfeiffer put it, ‘eating oil’, such is the embodied energy in new buildings that it could be argued that we now live in buildings made from oil too.

In the same way that, across the world, the Transition movement is arguing for seeing peak oil and climate change as two sides of one coin, Chris Bird’s book represents an important shift in the debates around what the housing of the future will be like. Much of the literature on green building focuses on new build using local and/or natural materials – what is often termed ‘natural building’ – as self-builders discover the possibilities presented by materials such as cob, straw bales, hemp and so on. I have been involved in a number of natural building projects, and have taught straw-bale, cob, cordwood and hemp/lime construction courses. These are all wonderfully democratic materials; anyone can get the hang of them and use them to create individual spaces that feel so different from our everyday idea of what a house should feel like.

The point Chris makes in this book, however, is that the decisions about housing we need to make will bring together the challenges we face today (peak oil, climate change, the need vastly to reduce our energy consumption) with the challenges faced in the past (the need to rediscover local building materials). Much of what is known as ‘green building’ sources its materials from far and wide – sheep’s-wool insulation from Germany; lime from France; shingles from Canada. Like a delicious but distantly sourced organic meal, this represents an approach that is highly vulnerable to volatile energy prices.

The core argument of Local Sustainable Homes is that housing ourselves can be, and needs to be, about far more than simply having a roof over our heads. The model today is one of homes designed for us, built from high-embodied-energy materials, with a high carbon footprint; materials sourced wherever in the world they can be found cheapest; and the property purchased in a way that saddles us with a debt we then spend many years struggling to pay off. How would it be if, instead, we were more involved with our homes’ design, if our choice of materials meant that it became possible for local businesses to emerge to provide them, if the construction process worked in such a way that people could be trained to engage with construction for the first time, and if the homes were built in such a way as to require no space heating at all? We could, by building ’sustainable homes’, produce buildings that lock up more carbon than they produce, that have a local distinctiveness, and that stimulate the local economy rather than leaching from it.

Of course, it is not all just about new buildings. Of Britain’s approximately 24 million homes, at least 87 per cent are projected to still be in use by 2050. Retrofitting existing homes saves 15 times more CO2 than demolishing and rebuilding them. Over the past 30 years we have also used our housing stock to introduce the ruinous idea that our houses will increase in value for ever, and that we can use them as a cash-dispensing machine. In the UK, and especially in Ireland, this has led to a huge problem of overpriced, energy-inefficient housing that nobody can afford, and historically unprecedented indebtedness. Alongside energy efficiency and local materials, it is clear that we also need to find new models for how we ‘do’ housing – such as cohousing, housing cooperatives and so on. Many such models are explored within these pages. As the implications of the bursting of the debt ‘bubble’ continue to unravel, the owner–occupier model will become increasingly difficult to sustain, and we will need to look at a variety of ways in which we may house ourselves.

Possibly the greatest challenge, however, is tackling the low energy efficiency of our housing. The UK has some of the worst housing stock in Europe in terms of energy efficiency. How to retrofit buildings of such wildly different types? Many innovative schemes are under way, and Chris explores some of these here.

The question this book addresses, ultimately, is: What is a ‘local house’? In ten years’ time, might it be possible that the building standards require that new buildings be constructed using almost entirely local materials, but built to very high energy-efficiency standards, and that the existing housing stock be made vastly more energy-efficient, again using mostly local materials? While little is yet happening in terms of the use of local materials for retrofits, one very exciting development, under construction as I write, is the building of two ‘local Passivhauses’ in Wales. These use largely local materials (over 90 per cent local for one of them), and are built to the Passivhaus standard, requiring no space heating at all. Their construction involves the seeking of local materials, the training of local builders, the recycling of local newspaper (for insulation) and the engagement of local window-makers to manufacture high-performance windows from local timber. It is a project that is beginning to model the future of construction in such a way that the future comes into distinct focus.

The challenge, though, as Gill Seyfang of UAE puts it, is “scaling up the existing small-scale, one-off housing projects to industrial mass-production”. Housing ourselves, and reducing the energy consumption of our existing homes, if done well, could become one of the key drivers of the regeneration of our local economies. These challenging times demand that we think smart, and that is just what Chris Bird does within these pages.

Rob Hopkins, September 2010